21.04.202600:50 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/JPY Forecast: Yen Weakening Due to Oil Crisis Maintains Bullish Advantage

On Monday, the British pound slightly strengthened against the Japanese yen, breaking a two-day losing streak. This strengthening occurred amid renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which contributed to elevated oil prices and supported the yen's defensive stance, given Japan's significant dependence on imported energy.

The exchange rate approached the round level of 215.00.

This movement followed a new escalation over the weekend, when the Strait of Hormuz briefly opened. Iran regained control of this important maritime route, citing the continuing US naval blockade of its ports as a violation of ceasefire conditions. At the same time, the US Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman. High oil prices complicate the outlook for monetary policy, as elevated energy costs increase inflation risks.

For the UK, this may prompt the Bank of England to delay potential interest rate cuts, which in turn would prolong tight financial policy.

The situation is more complex in Japan. While persistent inflationary pressures may push the Bank of Japan to continue tightening policy, a potential slowdown in economic growth from rising import costs may hinder normalization efforts.

According to Reuters on Monday, citing five sources familiar with the Bank of Japan's position, the institution is likely to refrain from raising rates at the upcoming meeting, given the weakening forecasts regarding a quick resolution to the conflict in the Middle East, which continues to overshadow the country's economic and inflation expectations.

Going forward, traders should be attentive to geopolitical events that could set a new direction for movement. As for economic data, there are several significant reports scheduled in the UK economic calendar this week, including data on the labor market, inflation, and retail sales. The national consumer price index for Japan will also be in focus.

These reports may provide additional benchmarks for future monetary policy at the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan and influence the short-term movement of the GBP/JPY pair.

From a technical standpoint, the pair's price is located above important moving averages. The nearest support has been found at the round level of 214.00. The resistance is at the round level of 215.00. Oscillators are positive, indicating a bullish advantage.

The table below reflects the dynamics of the British pound against major currencies for Monday. The pound showed the most strength against the Australian dollar.