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The GBP/USD currency pair attempted a downward correction on Tuesday but has since traded in a range between 1.3480 and 1.3588 for several days. If the price bounces from the 1.3465-1.3480 area, the range will likely hold for a while longer. Yesterday, several important reports were published in the UK, among them the unemployment rate. Typically, the market pays little attention to this report, but this time the unemployment rate dropped by 0.3%, which should have bolstered the British currency. Unfortunately, the market continues to ignore much of the macroeconomic data. Over the weekend, we suggested that the ceasefire and the de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East had already been priced in, implying that a correction should begin. So far, everything aligns with our forecasts. Today, negotiations between Tehran and Washington are expected to take place, potentially changing the market and the situation in the Middle East dramatically. In this case, predicting price movements for the pair is impossible, and traders need to be prepared for any outcome.
From a technical perspective, the British currency is aligned for a downward correction, and the deterioration of relations between the US and Iran—who continue to "fire" hostile insinuations at each other—will only support the dollar's further strengthening. Breaking above the 1.3465-1.3480 area will open the way for the pair toward the Senkou Span B line. The upward trend remains intact, but from a technical standpoint, only the Ichimoku indicator lines serve as guideposts.
On the 5-minute timeframe, two excellent signals were formed yesterday. During the European trading session, the price precisely reacted to the 1.3480 level, bounced off it, and generated a buy signal. In the American trading session, the pair reached the critical line, bounced off it, and formed a sell signal. A few hours later, the price returned to the 1.3465-1.3480 range. As a result, traders had the opportunity to open two trades, each yielding about 30 pips in profit.
The COT reports for the British pound indicate that commercial traders' sentiment has been changing frequently in recent years. The red and blue lines, which represent the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, frequently intersect and are typically close to zero. Currently, these lines are moving apart, with non-commercial traders continuing to dominate... sales. Given the events in the Middle East, it is no longer surprising that demand for risk currencies is falling while demand for the dollar is rising.
In the long term, the dollar continues to weaken due to Donald Trump's policies, as seen on the weekly timeframe (illustration above). The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies are aimed both directly and indirectly at weakening the US currency. However, currently, geopolitical factors are at the forefront, providing strong support for the dollar. According to the latest COT report (dated April 14), the "Non-commercial" group opened 7,600 BUY contracts and 5,900 SELL contracts. Hence, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 1,700 contracts over the week.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form an upward trend that could be reversed if a full-scale war resumes in the Middle East. It is also worth noting that the influence of geopolitics is weakening, judging by the movements this week, although military actions in the region are currently on pause. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and there is no progress in negotiations. A correction is brewing.
For April 22, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681, 1.3751-1.3763. The Senkou Span B line (1.3382) and the Kijun-sen line (1.3535) can also serve as signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level to break even after the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.
On Wednesday, there are no significant events or reports planned in the UK and the US, so all market attention will be focused on negotiations between Iran and the US and Donald Trump's rhetoric. Traders may react only to geopolitical developments today.
Today, traders might consider short positions targeting 1.3369-1.3377 if the price settles below the 1.3465-1.3480 area. Long positions can be opened with targets of 1.3535 and 1.3588 if the price bounces from the area of 1.3465-1.3480.
Price levels of support and resistance – thick red lines, around which the movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – lines of the Ichimoku indicator that are carried over to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. They are strong lines.
Extreme levels – thin red lines from which the price has previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on COT charts – the size of the net position of each category of traders.
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