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There are a few reasons for joy regarding the Middle East and oil prices in the markets right now. Brent crude oil futures have risen from $84 to $98 over the past five days, illustrating market expectations regarding negotiations between the US and Iran and the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the only optimist in this situation remains U.S. President Donald Trump. Over the past day, he has made several new statements on this key topic for all markets, revealing that the White House is in no hurry regarding the Middle East, as it is focused on cashing in on oil and gas sales at elevated prices.
Overall, Trump has previously stated that America is making hundreds of billions of dollars from high energy prices. He has expressed interest in Iranian oil, and previously, Trump conducted a military intervention in Venezuela that also ended with control over black gold. Perhaps this time the raw truth lies in the black substance without which the modern world can hardly go a week?
This week, Trump unexpectedly extended the ceasefire with Iran. This event has an intriguing background, raising questions. Why did Trump extend the ceasefire if Iran has effectively walked away from negotiations? Why is there no specific deadline for the new ceasefire? Normally, Trump establishes clear timeframes, but now it seems as if he does not care how much longer the conflict, in which the US is directly involved, will persist.
In my opinion, there are two possible explanations. The first is that Trump is indeed in no hurry. What is there to rush for? The ceasefire does not imply new rocket attacks or strikes on American bases or Iranian facilities. In other words, it seems there is no war, but there are super profits from oil and gas. The second is that Trump is preparing a new strike against Iran. Recent reports indicate that a third aircraft carrier is heading to the Persian Gulf, suggesting an impending escalation.
Meanwhile, Pakistan continues to assure that a new round of negotiations may take place in the next 2-3 days. Based on what are such promises made if Iran has openly stated that new negotiations are impossible until America lifts the blockade of Iranian ports? And the US is not planning to lift the blockade, as it also represents a financial blockade. Iran cannot sell oil, and Trump has already calculated that the country is losing about $500 million a day.
Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward segment of the trend (lower picture), while in the short term, it is within a corrective structure. The corrective wave set appears quite complete and may take on a more complex, extended form only if a stable, long-term truce is established among Iran, the US, Israel, and ALL other countries in the Middle East. Otherwise, I believe that from current positions, a new downward wave set may begin. Or a corrective wave may continue.
The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I had anticipated. We now see a clear three-wave upward structure on the charts, which may already be complete. If this is indeed the case, we can expect the formation of at least one descending wave (presumably d). The upward segment of the trend may take on a five-wave form, but for that to happen, the conflict in the Middle East needs to subside, not reignite. Therefore, the base scenario for the coming days is a decline to the 34th figure or slightly below. After that, everything will again depend on geopolitical factors.
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