29.04.202612:25 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD Forecast: Gold Under Selling Pressure

Today, Wednesday, gold (XAU/USD) continues to face selling pressure for the third day in a row. Ongoing uncertainty regarding the second stage of peace negotiations between the United States and Iran is supporting the U.S. dollar's status as the key reserve currency and weighing on this asset's prices. Expectations for a diplomatic resolution weakened after the weekend, when U.S. President Donald Trump canceled his special envoy's visit to Pakistan. Additionally, according to media reports, Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Iran's updated proposal to end the conflict and restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while discussions on the nuclear program were postponed.

At the same time, shipping volumes through this strategically important route have dropped significantly amid restrictions imposed by Iran, as well as the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. Combined with the prolonged deadlock between the countries, this supports high oil prices and increases inflationary risks. Such dynamics could force leading central banks, including the Federal Reserve, to maintain a tighter monetary policy, which in turn reduces the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset.Nevertheless, market participants expecting a decline in the precious metal should refrain from aggressive action and adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of the FOMC decision, expected later during the U.S. session. The key focus should be on the subsequent press conference, where comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell should be carefully analyzed for signals about the future direction of monetary policy. Expectations regarding the regulator's next steps could significantly influence short-term movements in the U.S. dollar and, accordingly, set the direction for gold prices.

At the same time, the current fundamental backdrop points to a continuation of the downward trend for the XAU/USD pair, increasing the likelihood of further price declines. In this regard, any attempts at corrective growth may be seen as opportunities to open short positions and are likely to be limited in duration.

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD failed to hold the round level of 4600, finding support at 4550 on its way toward the round level of 4500. Oscillators are negative, indicating weakness among bulls and suggesting that the path of least resistance remains to the downside.