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The UAE are set to leave OPEC on May 1, a move that would be a major blow to the oil producing cartel. Meanwhile, the US is stepping up pressure on Iran, targeting Chinese refineries and countries that pay transit fees.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has again broken the psychological $100/bbl level amid fundamental drivers.
Reports that the US is prepared to extend its blockade of Iran are exacerbating supply problems in the Middle East. According to a Wall Street Journal report published Wednesday, US officials say President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iran. The report says Trump has decided to continue pressure on Iran's economy and oil exports by restricting shipping to and from Iranian ports. Sources added that he sees alternatives — such as renewed bombing or broader military intervention — as riskier than maintaining the blockade.
In addition, the United Arab Emirates are set to leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on May 1, a significant blow to the group, Reuters reported Tuesday, against a backdrop of a deepening energy crisis caused by the Iran conflict and growing rifts among Gulf states.
President Trump has also said Iran asked Washington to lift the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz while ceasefire negotiations continue, as energy shipments from the region are already being disrupted. Closing this vital sea corridor has halted roughly 20% of global oil shipments.
The US has further stepped up pressure on Iran by taking additional measures, including the possible imposition of sanctions on Chinese refineries with ties to Tehran and on countries that pay transit fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
From a technical standpoint, oil is trading above the main moving averages, with momentum pushing beyond the psychological $100.00 mark, confirming the likelihood of further upside. Oscillators are positive and remain well away from overbought territory, indicating bullish strength in the market.
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