07.05.202600:52 Forex Analysis & Reviews: WTI Price Analysis and Forecast: Washington and Tehran on the Brink of Signing a Memorandum of Understanding

On Wednesday, the price of American oil, as measured by West Texas Intermediate (WTI), sharply declined. The market is actively reassessing geopolitical risks in the Middle East amid Axios reporting of significant positive developments in relations between the United States and Iran.

According to Axios, Washington and Tehran are on the verge of signing a memorandum of understanding aimed at helping to resolve the current conflict and paving the way for expanded dialogue regarding Iran's nuclear program. It is reported that the discussed aspects include the phased lifting of restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's imposition of a moratorium on uranium enrichment, and the easing of American sanctions, which would unlock billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets.

Additionally, the White House expects a response from Iran on key issues within the next 48 hours. A source involved in the diplomatic efforts in Pakistan confirmed to Reuters that the parties are "practically close" to finalizing an agreement.

These events have sparked a risk-on sentiment in financial markets, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices as investors began actively shedding the "geopolitical premium" associated with potential supply disruption risks.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a strategically important artery for the global energy market: approximately one-fifth of all oil supplied to the global market passes through this narrow passage. Any sustainable improvement in the situation in the region automatically alleviates concerns about potential disruptions in crude oil supply.

The bearish market movement intensified after US President Donald Trump announced a temporary suspension of the "Project Freedom" initiative aimed at restoring safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz to allow for continued diplomatic negotiations. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated that the ceasefire regime between the US and Iran is currently being observed, emphasizing that Washington does not seek to escalate the conflict.

The decline in oil prices occurs despite persistently tense conditions in the physical market. On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an 8.1 million-barrel reduction in US crude oil inventories last week, significantly exceeding the consensus forecast of a 2.8 million-barrel decrease. Additionally, Goldman Sachs analysts warned that global oil inventories are approaching minimal levels not seen in eight years.

Nevertheless, in the short term, markets are clearly focusing on improving the geopolitical situation, given that a possible agreement between the US and Iran could gradually normalize energy supplies in the region and reduce risks to global supply.

From a technical standpoint, the recent break below the 200-period four-hour simple moving average (SMA) was seen as a key bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) fluctuates in the oversold zone, indicating a likely correction.

On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index has confirmed a bearish near-term sentiment by moving into negative territory. However, it is worth noting that both the 100-day and 200-day SMAs have not changed trajectory, suggesting that oil prices may rise in the future.