24.04.201408:06 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical analysis of USD/CAD for April 24, 2014

Long-term review

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Retail sales rose 0.5% to $41.0 billion in February. Gains were reported in 7 of 11 sub sectors, representing 56% of total retail sales. Excluding sales at gasoline stations and motor vehicles and parts dealers, sales advanced 0.8%. After removing the effects of price changes, retail sales in volume terms rose 0.1%. Health and personal care stores (+2.6%) recorded the largest advance in dollar terms among all subs sectors on the strength of higher sales at pharmacies and drug stores and, to a lesser extent, food supplement stores. Retail sales at general merchandise stores grew 1.4%. Sales in the "other general merchandise stores" industry grew for a third consecutive month.

Technical view-

USD/CAD has been in an uptrend from 1.0859 levels. In yesterday's trading session the pair's uptrend was restricted at 1.0539 (50SMA) levels and the 50.0 fib level. The next up move will take place only after a day close above the 50SMA. Bulls get recharge only above 1.1053 for targets 1.1118, 1.1170 and 1.1279. On the down side, the immediate support comes at yesterday's low of 1.1018. Once it breaks below this, 1.0984 and 1.0959 will be an open target. In the daily chart, bulls have an upper hand, so buy on dip is the best strategy for the near term, it can hit 1.1130 if 1.0959 is not broken, the overall trend is weak for the long term (RSI favors bears in the weekly and monthly chart). We expect the correction to continue, until the pair trades below the 1.1070 (last week's high) levels. Safe traders can buy above the yesterday's high for 1.1107 and 1.1130 as an immediate target.

Intraday- sell on rise + stbt

The pair has a strong support zone between 1.1025-1.10 levels. Sellers can enter short positions below 1.10 for targets at 1.0984, 1.0959 and 1.0942. RSI in the H4 chart indicates a sell call. For the rest of the week the trend is forecast to be sell on a rally or even below 1.10 levels. Fresh buy only above 1.1053 levels. I expect the pair will come down (1.0950) first and then move to 1.1130 levels.

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