Relevance up to 01:00 2026-05-12 UTC--4
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The US dollar has again shown strong growth against the euro, the pound, and other risk assets, driven by the escalating situation in the Middle East.
Last Friday, the dollar declined amid mixed labor market data and geopolitical tensions. Despite the increase in US non-farm employment, the dollar declined after the report was released, as April's employment figures were lower than March's. Against this backdrop and ongoing geopolitical tensions, risk assets continued to experience demand.
However, during today's Asian session, everything changed. Negative news regarding the progress of US-Iran negotiations has put pressure on the euro and pound. The market will remain vigilant, assessing potential risks and opportunities associated with the development of the geopolitical situation.
In this context, pressure on the euro and British pound is expected to increase. The lack of significant data for the Eurozone and the UK today raises the likelihood of further declines in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs.
The failure of diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran will maintain uncertainty, which has negatively affected trader sentiment for an extended period, contributing to capital outflow from risk assets.
Momentum Strategy (Breakout):
For the EUR/USD Pair:
- Long positions on a breakout above 1.1760 may lead to a rise in the euro to around 1.1796 and 1.1815.
- Short positions on a breakout below 1.1745 may lead to a decline in the euro to around 1.1725 and 1.1701.
For the GBP/USD Pair:
- Longs on a breakout above 1.3599 may lead to a rise in the pound to around 1.3628 and 1.3655.
- Shorts on a breakout below 1.3574 may lead to a decline in the pound to around 1.3547 and 1.3514.
For the USD/JPY Pair:
- Longs on a breakout above 157.35 may lead to a rise in the dollar to around 157.70 and 157.99.
- Shorts on a breakout below 157.00 may lead to a sell-off in the dollar to around 156.73 and 155.96.
Mean Reversion Strategy (Return):
For the EUR/USD Pair:
- I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.1775 when returning below this level.
- I will look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.1740 when returning to this level.
For the GBP/USD Pair:
- I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3606 when returning below this level.
- I will look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3575 when returning to this level.
For the AUD/USD Pair:
- I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.7245 when returning below this level.
- I will look for longs after a failed breakout below 0.7223 when returning to this level.
For the USD/CAD Pair:
- I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3697 when returning below this level.
- I will look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3676 when returning to this level.
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