11.05.202609:04 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Oil Returns to Growth for Explainable Reasons

Oil prices showed significant growth today, driven by US President Donald Trump's decision to reject Iran's retaliatory measures regarding the proposal to end the war in the Middle East. This decision effectively prolonged the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime route for oil transportation.

Brent crude futures surged by 4.6%, reaching $105.99 per barrel. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded around $100 per barrel.

President Trump stated on social media that Iran's retaliatory measures were "absolutely unacceptable." The rejection of Iran's proposed settlement exacerbates the already tense geopolitical situation in the region, which traditionally leads to rising energy prices due to fears of potential supply disruptions.

The extension of the Strait of Hormuz closure, through which a significant portion of global maritime oil transport passes, directly impacts supply and, consequently, crude oil prices. Further escalation of the conflict could lead to even more substantial increases in oil prices. The International Energy Agency has already raised alarms, stating that the conflict is causing the largest supply shock in history.

Fears of a possible re-escalation of military confrontation are likely to grow, further increasing the potential for price increases. According to media reports, Tehran has offered to transfer some of its highly enriched uranium stocks to a third country but rejected the idea of dismantling its nuclear facilities.

On Sunday, a drone strike briefly ignited a cargo ship off the coast of Qatar in the Persian Gulf, marking yet another attack on vessels in the region since the ceasefire began in early April. The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait reported intercepting several hostile drones flying over their territory.

It is worth noting that Trump has a meeting scheduled this week with President Xi Jinping, and US officials stated on Sunday that he is expected to urge the Chinese leader to reconsider his country's approach to Iran. Due to this anticipated meeting, the focus may shift from the Middle East.

Regarding the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $100.40. This will allow them to target $106.80, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The further target will be around $113.80. In the event of a decline in oil prices, bears will attempt to take control of $92.50. If they succeed, a breakout of the range will deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push oil down to a low of $86.67, with the potential to reach $81.38.