11.05.202613:27 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on May 11th (U.S. Session)

Trade Analysis and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen

No tests of the levels I identified occurred in the first half of the day, so I remained without trades.

Meanwhile, as the market remains in balance, a key group of experts advising the Japanese government has called on the Bank of Japan to take into account the risks of worsening corporate financing conditions when setting monetary policy. This suggests that Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda may face resistance if he attempts to raise the key interest rate next month. The appeal reflects concerns about the potential negative impact of monetary tightening on the financial health of Japanese companies. Experts emphasize that excessive rate hikes could increase borrowing costs for businesses, weaken their investment capacity, and consequently slow economic growth.

Given the ongoing pressure on the Japanese yen and interventions by regulators aimed at strengthening it, this view from the expert community carries particular importance. It signals a possible divergence of opinion within the government and the Bank of Japan regarding monetary policy priorities. Ueda may need to compromise or carefully justify his actions in order to overcome this potential resistance. Raising interest rates would support further strengthening of the national currency, but it would also increase borrowing costs, which is negative for businesses and the economy.

Returning to the near-term outlook, U.S. existing home sales data is expected in the second half of the day. It is assumed that the figures will reflect trends already priced in by the market and will not introduce fundamentally new information capable of triggering sharp moves. Therefore, the most likely scenario in the near term is a sideways market with low volatility and no clear direction.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at an entry point around 157.20 (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 157.55 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 157.55, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal). Growth today is possible only if U.S. data is strong.Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: I will also consider buying USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 156.98 while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. Growth can be expected toward 157.20 and 157.55.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 156.98 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 156.63, where I will exit short positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Selling pressure may return today if U.S. data is weak.Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD is below the zero line and has just started moving downward.

Scenario No. 2: I will also consider selling USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 157.20 while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 156.98 and 156.63 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line — entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line — estimated Take Profit level or area for profit-taking, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line — entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line — estimated Take Profit level or area for profit-taking, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator — trading decisions should be guided by overbought and oversold zones

Important Note: Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when entering the market. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price volatility. If you decide to trade during news events, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper risk management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are, from the outset, a losing intraday strategy.