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The EUR/USD currency pair remained calm on Wednesday, awaiting developments in the Middle East and Donald Trump's meeting with Xi Jinping, while continuing to ignore important macroeconomic events. Recall that this week, the most significant report was published—the inflation data for the US. This report was supplemented by the Producer Price Index yesterday. As one might guess, both indicators showed significant growth, with the PPI reaching a four-year high. What was the market's reaction to these two reports? None. The market showed no reaction. Therefore, there is little point in discussing the impact of high inflation on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy or speculating on the views that the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, will adopt. The market is entirely focused on geopolitics. Although no geopolitical news emerged over the past day, the situation in the Middle East could flare up at any moment or remain on the path of de-escalation and ceasefire. Consequently, the market is reluctant to jump to conclusions and open trades.
Over the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals formed on Wednesday, and the day's overall volatility was below 50 pips. However, sell signals were formed on Tuesday, and novice traders, considering the weak volatility, could have carried them into Wednesday. In this case, a few dozen points could have been gained from short positions.
On the hourly timeframe, the upward trend persists, but the euro has been moving more sideways than upward or downward for several weeks. The rise of the US dollar has halted, as the conflict in the Middle East is in a "quiet mode," but the European currency is also not in a hurry to rise, as negotiations are progressing very slowly, there is no official information, and both sides regularly violate the ceasefire terms.
On Thursday, beginner traders may consider opening short positions targeting the 1.1655-1.1666 area if the price bounces from the 1.1745-1.1754 area. Long positions can be considered if the price consolidates above the 1.1745-1.1754 area, with a target of 1.1830-1.1837.
On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, and 1.1899-1.1908. On Thursday, Christine Lagarde will give another speech in the Eurozone, from which we do not expect anything new. In the US, a report on retail sales will be released, likely to be ignored.
Price levels (areas) of support and resistance – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales, or sources of signals.
Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction is preferable to trade now.
MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) – histogram and signal line – a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done as cautiously as possible, or one should exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.
Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are key to long-term trading success.
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