Zostať 
Podmienky obchodovania
Nástroje
The wave structure on the hourly chart currently remains straightforward. The latest completed upward wave exceeded the previous peak by only a few pips, while the latest downward wave (which is still ongoing) broke below the previous low. Thus, the trend has shifted to bearish. The temporary ceasefire between Iran and the United States supported the bulls for a month, but now, after six weeks, it can be said that geopolitics is moving toward preserving the conflict. As I warned earlier, the bulls failed to develop their momentum without a full ceasefire in the Middle East.
On Monday, the market took a short pause, allowing the euro to recover slightly upward. During the day, several reports related to the Middle East conflict emerged, and some traders even found reasons for optimism. In particular, it became known that Tehran and Washington exchanged new proposals for resolving the conflict. According to information from the White House, Washington is also prepared to temporarily suspend sanctions on Iranian oil. However, in my opinion, there are still few real reasons for optimism. Certainly, the mere fact that negotiations are continuing is encouraging. However, Tehran and Washington still appear unwilling to compromise on anything substantial. Iran is not prepared to abandon uranium enrichment, does not intend to give up its nuclear stockpiles, demands a complete end to hostilities, the lifting of the blockade on Iranian ports, reparations payments, and the unfreezing of overseas accounts. What Iran is offering in return remains unclear. At the same time, Washington insists on Iran's non-nuclear status and is not prepared to satisfy this extensive list of demands. Thus, although negotiations have not officially collapsed, the sides are not moving toward each other either. On Monday, the bulls regained some confidence, but this may prove temporary.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 50.0% corrective level at 1.1778 and declined toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1617. A rebound from this level would favor the euro and some upward movement toward the 61.8% corrective level at 1.1706. A consolidation below 1.1617 would allow traders to expect a continuation of the decline toward the 100.0% corrective level at 1.1474. No emerging divergences are currently visible on any indicator.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 6,528 long positions and closed 1,470 short positions. Over seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared due to the war in Iran, while over the past seven weeks the situation has stabilized amid the pause in hostilities in the Middle East. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 224,000, while short positions amount to 184,000. The gap is once again widening in favor of the euro.
Overall, in the long term, major players continue to view the euro with considerable interest. Naturally, various global developments — which have been abundant in recent years — continue to influence investor sentiment. At present, the market's attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the war has merely been paused rather than ended. Therefore, in the near future, the euro and dollar exchange rates will depend not on Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy, nor on economic data, but on developments in Iran.
Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:
The May 19 economic calendar contains only one secondary event. The impact of economic data on market sentiment on Tuesday is expected to be negligible.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
On Tuesday, I would recommend selling the pair after a consolidation below the 1.1630 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1578. Buy positions could have been opened after a close above 1.1630, with targets at 1.1682 and 1.1745. Today, these long positions may still be kept open.
Fibonacci retracement grids are drawn from 1.1409–1.1850 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474–1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.
InstaForex analytical reviews will make you fully aware of market trends! Being an InstaForex client, you are provided with a large number of free services for efficient trading.
