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The price test at 159.38 coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling dollars. As a result, the pair fell by 17 pips.
Weak data on US economic growth, slow price pressures over the past month, and news that the USA and Iran are continuing to move towards a peace agreement all put pressure on the USD/JPY pair. The slowdown in US economic growth, which has become more evident, undermines expectations for the Federal Reserve's future policy. Investors now find it increasingly difficult to price in interest rate hikes—especially amid slower growth in the personal consumption expenditures price index than projected. Any further signs of de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, particularly regarding one of the world's largest oil producers, could spark a wave of optimism in global markets. This could lead to further declines in the USD/JPY pair.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point reaches around 159.40 (green line on the chart), with a target at 159.84 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.84, I intend to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30-35-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). The best time to return to buying the pair is during corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 159.26 at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. One can expect a rise to opposite levels of 159.40 and 159.84.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the 159.26 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 158.95, where I intend to exit my shorts and also open longs immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will return at any moment; we just need a hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 159.40 at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. One can expect a decline to opposite levels of 159.26 and 158.95.
Novice Forex traders must be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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