03.06.202610:26 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Market keeps setting records

Everything that works is tied to artificial intelligence. Betting on other sectors of the S&P 500 looks unwise. That's the view driving investors as they push all three major US indices to record highs for a fifth straight day. This is the longest such run since February 2017. The nine-day stock rally is the longest of the year — one more session would make it the longest winning streak since 1995.

Dynamics of S&P 500 winning streaks

The breathtaking 36% surge in tech stocks from March highs has overshadowed weakness in energy and other names and produced a 16% rally in the S&P 500 through April–May. However, more than 12 percentage points of that divergence are attributable to just a dozen issuers. And FOMO, or Fear of Missing Out, is not confined to retail crowds; professional investors are acting the same way.

Chipmakers are leading the charge. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has jumped by about 90% from this year's local lows. New S&P records were driven by Marvell Technology and Hewlett Packard Enterprise. Marvell rallied after NVIDIA's CEO Steven Jen said it could be the next company to join the $1 trillion market-cap club. Hewlett Packard Enterprise surprised investors with a strong Q1 report.

Dynamics of skeptics vs optimists in the US equity market

While euphoria grips US equities, Wall Street trading advisors are split on the S&P 500's outlook. Some who previously advised buy-and-hold are turning bearish. The share of pessimists is materially higher than on the eve of the dot-com bubble burst. For some, that's a worrying signal; others see it as evidence the rally can continue — the market has yet to reach its ceiling.

S&P bulls are undeterred by geopolitics or by rising odds of Fed tightening in 2026, currently priced in at 56% following hawkish FOMC comments. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said it makes sense to keep rates on hold amid uncertainty, but if inflation accelerates further, the central bank will have to act.

Meanwhile, Polymarket has cut the probability of the Strait of Hormuz reopening from 60% to 22% over the past 10 days. Geopolitics continues to weigh on other asset classes, but equities are ignoring it for now. How long that will last remains the key question.

Technically, the daily S&P 500 chart remains unchanged: the broad index is confidently moving toward the previously announced long target of 7,700. The buy-the-dip strategy is working like clockwork. There is no case yet to abandon it — the bias remains for a continued rally.