04.06.202609:13 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Gold Shows a Sawtooth Market

Gold has gained again today and is trading around $4,460 per ounce, significantly recovering from yesterday's losses. The catalyst for this recovery was the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, mediated by the US. The market perceived it as a step toward a broader resolution of the Middle Eastern conflict, which has kept global energy markets on edge since February.

The mechanics of gold's reaction remain consistent with recent months, but in the opposite direction. The Lebanese ceasefire eased short-term pressure on bond yields and the dollar—and this is what brought buyers back into the market on the dip, who have been waiting for a turnaround toward the long-term trendline. Oil, after three days of rising, retreated on the news of the agreement—declining oil means fewer inflation concerns, alleviating some pressure on the metal via interest rate channels.

However, without a more comprehensive resolution to the conflict, a serious recovery in gold prices is not to be expected. Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike are already priced in at least through the beginning of 2027, and while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, inflationary pressures are not going away. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan confirmed yesterday that the central bank will likely need to raise rates by the end of this year to bring inflation back to target.

It is worth noting that the Lebanese agreement is conditional. It depends on a complete cessation of fire from Hezbollah, and this condition makes it fragile. A more fundamental issue—the US-Iran agreement concerning the Strait of Hormuz—remains unsigned. Trump stated that the strait would open immediately after the memorandum is signed, but Tehran rejects the American conditions. The framework agreement is generally agreed upon, but the details are not. This creates a situation where gold may briefly breathe but not sustainably reverse upwards.

Silver is up 0.8% to $73.34. Platinum and palladium are also experiencing gains.

From a technical standpoint, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,481. This will allow targeting $4,546, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be around $4,607. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to take control at $4,432. If they succeed, breaking below this range will deliver a serious blow to the bulls' positions, pushing gold down to a low of $4,372 and potentially dropping to $4,304.