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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair advanced to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1578, rebounded from this level, and reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar. As a result, the decline may continue today toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1514. Consolidation above 1.1578 would allow traders to expect a continuation of the euro's rise toward the next corrective level of 50.0% at 1.1630.
The wave structure on the hourly chart remains straightforward at the moment. The latest completed upward wave broke above the previous peak, while the latest downward wave broke below the previous low. Therefore, the trend has once again shifted to bearish. Bulls may launch a new advance only if Iran and the United States sign an interim agreement, stop violating the terms of the ceasefire, and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. Without these developments, further appreciation of the euro will be extremely difficult.
No important economic data were released on Tuesday, and traders spent the entire day reacting to geopolitical headlines that alternately pointed to a ceasefire and a potential agreement, or to renewed escalation and a breakdown in negotiations. As a result, Germany's industrial production and trade balance reports, as well as the U.S. existing home sales report, had virtually no chance of attracting traders' attention.
I would highlight two key developments on Tuesday. First, in the morning, Donald Trump once again stated that Iran was prepared to hand over its nuclear weapons to the United States and commit not to enrich uranium in the future. According to the U.S. president, a deal with Iran is close, and the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within two weeks. However, later in the day, reports emerged that Iran had shot down a U.S. military helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz, while overnight U.S. forces carried out strikes on Iranian facilities in the same area. As a result, the sides once again exchanged strikes and threats while simultaneously preparing for another round of negotiations, which are currently being conducted exclusively through Pakistani mediation. Consequently, the market was forced to swing sharply in both directions throughout the day. Today, bulls are once again on the offensive as the "ceasefire" remains in place and negotiations continue.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1667 and resumed its decline within a downward trend channel. Consolidation below the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.1569 suggests a continuation of the decline toward the next corrective level of 0.0% at 1.1411. I will begin to expect a bullish trend only after prices close above the channel. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 12,387 long positions and closed 7,053 short positions. Over the seven weeks of February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared due to the war in Iran, while over the past ten weeks the situation has gradually stabilized amid the suspension of hostilities in the Middle East. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 235,000, compared with 186,000 short positions. The gap is once again widening in favor of bulls.
Overall, from a long-term perspective, major market participants continue to view the euro favorably. Naturally, various global developments—which have been abundant in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. At present, the market's attention remains firmly focused on the Middle East, where the conflict has only been paused rather than resolved. Therefore, in the near term, movements in the euro and the dollar will depend less on Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy and economic data, and more on developments in Iran.
News Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone:
The economic calendar for June 10 contains only one event, but it is an important one. The economic backdrop may influence market sentiment during the second half of Wednesday's trading session.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Short positions were possible following a rebound from the 1.1578 level, targeting 1.1514. New short positions may again be considered on another rebound from 1.1578 with the same target. Long positions could be opened following a rebound from 1.1514, targeting 1.1578 and 1.1630. The first target has already been reached. New long positions may be considered after a close above 1.1578.
Fibonacci retracement grids are drawn from 1.1409 to 1.1850 on the hourly chart and from 1.2081 to 1.1411 on the 4-hour chart.
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