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On the hourly chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3408 on Wednesday, declined to the 1.3349–1.3355 support level, and then rebounded from that area. As a result, the pair may continue rising today toward the 1.3408 level. This week, the pound has remained trapped between 1.3349 and 1.3408. A consolidation below the 1.3349–1.3355 level would signal a continuation of the decline toward the next Fibonacci retracement level of 76.4% at 1.3277.
The wave structure remains bearish, as bulls lack positive geopolitical developments to launch a meaningful advance. The most recent completed upward wave failed to break above the previous peak, while the latest downward wave broke below the previous low. Geopolitical developments remain highly uncertain at present, leaving neither bulls nor bears with a clear advantage. The bearish trend can be considered complete only if the June 5 high is broken.
The news backdrop on Wednesday gave bears an opportunity to continue their advance, although they have clearly lost momentum in recent weeks. The inflation report showed another acceleration in headline inflation to 4.2% year-over-year, while core inflation rose to 2.9% year-over-year. In both cases, the figures matched market expectations, which explains the lack of a significant market reaction. Nevertheless, rising inflation strengthens hawkish market expectations and may support both the US dollar and bearish sentiment toward GBP/USD in the medium term. However, this support is unlikely to be clearly visible, as geopolitical developments remain the primary market driver. Not every headline is capable of influencing market sentiment. The flow of news is simply too large, and most developments have no meaningful consequences for the conflict in the Middle East. As a result, traders have chosen to focus on the most important events, which have been relatively scarce lately. Tehran and Washington still cannot reach an agreement and continue to demonstrate their resolve, yet neither side appears willing to engage in a full-scale conflict. Therefore, after each escalation or violation of ceasefire conditions, conciliatory rhetoric and indirect proposals to return to negotiations tend to follow.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3327 and turned in favor of the pound. Therefore, the pair may return to the 1.3482–1.3514 resistance level in the near term. A consolidation below 1.3327 would favor a continuation of the decline toward the 0.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3159. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report
Sentiment among the Non-commercial category became less bearish during the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 4,291, while the number of short positions fell by 13,471. The gap between long and short positions now stands at approximately 53,000 versus 110,000. Bears have dominated the market in recent months, which is unsurprising given the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the political crisis in the United Kingdom. The bears' advantage currently exceeds a two-to-one ratio.
I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound. However, in the near term, developments will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but rather on the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market has adjusted to the expectation of a prolonged conflict, but the latest developments suggest that a ceasefire may still be achieved, although it is unlikely to be quick or easy.
News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom
The economic calendar for June 11 contains only two releases, neither of which can be considered particularly important. However, the economic backdrop may have a noticeable impact on market sentiment during the second half of the day.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips
Short positions were possible after the rebound from the 1.3408 level on the hourly chart, targeting the 1.3349–1.3355 level. That target has been reached. New short positions may be considered following another rebound from 1.3408 or after a close below the 1.3349–1.3355 support level. Long positions may be considered today following a rebound from the 1.3349–1.3355 level with a target at 1.3408. Alternatively, a close above 1.3408 would open the way toward the 1.3454–1.3466 target level.
Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the hourly chart and from 1.3866 to 1.3158 on the 4-hour chart.
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