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The price test at 1.1522 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling euros. As a result, the pair dropped nearly 20 pips.
The market appears to be more focused on geopolitical developments than on monetary policy. The European Central Bank's decision to raise interest rates, while a step toward normalization, was overshadowed by statements from US President Donald Trump. His words about de-escalating the conflict with Iran elicited a stronger reaction from the euro than the ECB's actions, highlighting investors' current nervousness and their preference for reacting to political signals rather than fundamental economic data. This indicates that in an environment of heightened uncertainty surrounding the Middle Eastern conflict, market players are inclined to respond to news that can rapidly change the geopolitical landscape. The ECB's actions, as part of a long-term strategy to combat inflation, are perceived as less significant compared to possible military actions or their cancellation.
Today's economic calendar promises to be eventful, especially in the first half of the day, when traders and analysts will focus on the release of consumer price index data from three of the largest eurozone economies—Germany, Italy, and Spain. These indicators traditionally serve as a barometer of inflationary pressure in the region and can significantly influence market sentiment and the ECB's future rhetoric. The anticipated CPI data are expected to provide fresh insights into price dynamics, which remain a key factor influencing the ECB's monetary policy. Persisting inflation, even if showing signs of slowing, may heighten expectations for further monetary policy tightening, including the possibility of maintaining high interest rates for a longer period. All of this will present a new reason to buy the euro.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, euro purchases can be made upon reaching a price of around 1.1579 (green line on the chart), with a target to reach 1.1620. At point 1.1620, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can only expect euro growth today after good data from the eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1556 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to opposite levels of 1.1579 and 1.1620.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros today after reaching the 1.1556 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1510, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair today will return only in case of very weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today in case of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1579 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1556 and 1.1510.
Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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