16.06.202606:25 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on June 16? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Tuesday, and none of them are important. In Germany and the European Union, the ZEW economic expectations indices will be released, while the US will see the weekly ADP report, as well as reports on building permit issuance and housing starts. We consider all this data secondary, and Monday showed that the market is in no hurry to open positions ahead of the meetings of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, and the signing of the deal between Iran and the US.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is absolutely nothing to highlight among the fundamental events for Tuesday. The European Central Bank meeting took place last week, but the rate hike did not impress the market. The euro did not appreciate, and the market simply ignored this event and Christine Lagarde's speech, which could be considered "hawkish." The Fed and BoE meetings are scheduled for this week, so members of the Monetary Committees cannot comment on monetary policy at this time. It is likely that both central banks will keep key interest rates unchanged.

The geopolitical backdrop is gradually improving, but traders only have another statement from Trump about the end of the war, the conclusion of a deal, and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz to work with. Will this information be confirmed? That will determine whether the US dollar continues to decline. Let us remind you that the US president has been promising a deal with Iran for two months. In most cases, this information has not been confirmed. Therefore, the market reacted positively to Trump's statements on Monday night, but cautiously. Even if the agreement is signed on Friday, the market doubts that it will be long-lasting and that the parties involved will be able to find a way out of the deadlock regarding the "nuclear question."

General Conclusions:

During the second trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade quite sluggishly as geopolitical news did not impress them on Monday, and no important reports are scheduled for today. The euro can be traded from the area of 1.1584-1.1594, while the British pound can be traded from the area of 1.3380-1.3386. Geopolitics remains the key influencing factor in the currency market.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.