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The price test at 1.3435 coincided with the MACD indicator being well above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. The second test at 1.3435 triggered Sell Scenario #2 for the pound, resulting in a 20-pip decline in the pair.
The US and Iran have yet to publish the text of the memorandum of understanding, leading to a return of demand for the dollar and pressure on the British pound. This uncertainty surrounding the potential peace agreement is creating nervousness in financial markets as traders try to assess the real implications and potential benefits for the global economy. The lack of clear details, as has happened several times before, fuels speculation and heightens volatility, prompting investors to reassess risk.
Given that no important reports are scheduled for the UK today, the pound may easily continue to decline. The absence of fresh macroeconomic data from the United Kingdom deprives traders of reasons to take new positions, meaning existing trends may continue to develop. The recent decline in the pound, likely driven by broader market uncertainty and sustained demand for the US dollar, could lead to a more sustained correction.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when the entry point reaches around 1.3405 (the green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.3449 (the thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3449, I intend to exit my long positions and sell immediately on the bounce (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the entry point). We can only expect growth in the pound today following positive news from the Middle East. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3383 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect growth to opposing levels of 1.3405 and 1.3449.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3383 level (the red line on the chart) is breached, triggering a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3355, where I intend to exit my short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pound can return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3405 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decrease to the opposing levels of 1.3383 and 1.3355.
Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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