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After yesterday's close, US stock indices posted very strong gains. The S&P 500 rose 1.65%, the Nasdaq 100 jumped 3.07%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.92%.
However, today global markets took a pause after three consecutive sessions with gains of more than 1%. The MSCI All?Country World Index swung between slight gains and losses, and US stock futures ticked down a bit after the S&P 500 gained 1.7% and the Nasdaq 100 surged 3.1% on Monday. Brent crude fell below $83 per barrel.
The Iran story meanwhile saw a new development. Donald Trump and JD Vance signed an electronic copy of a memorandum of understanding with Iran, and the president told Emmanuel Macron at their meeting that the strait is already partly open and will be fully open on Friday. An official signing ceremony is scheduled in Switzerland that same day. That, however, is the easiest part so far — the key question is whether the ceasefire will hold and whether oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz can truly normalize, given the need for demining, production restoration, and replenishment of depleted inventories.
Besides, today the Federal Reserve is starting a policy meeting under new chair Kevin Warsh. The funds rate is expected to remain unchanged, but the main intrigue will be the tone of his first press conference. If Warsh reduces reliance on forward guidance about future moves, policy changes themselves could become a source of volatility. The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank are also expected to keep interest rates unchanged.
The Bank of Japan today raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1%, the highest level since 1995. The decision met market expectations, and the reaction was muted: the yen strengthened moderately, and the Nikkei recovered.
Technically for the S&P 500, buyers' primary task today is to overcome the immediate resistance at 7,574. That would confirm upside momentum and open the way for a push toward 7,607. Controlling 7,637 is another priority for bulls, as it would strengthen their position. If prices move lower amid weakening risk appetite, buyers need to defend around 7,544. A break below that level would likely push the instrument down quickly to 7,518 and open the path to 7,494.
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