26.06.202610:50 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Price Analysis and Forecast: EUR/USD Attempts to Recover

Recent reports of an attack by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on a Singapore-flagged vessel in the Strait of Hormuz have renewed concerns about the durability of the temporary peace agreement between the United States and Iran. This development is supporting the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset, which in turn acts as a significant negative factor for the EUR/USD pair.

Meanwhile, market participants have scaled back their expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, as there is a growing view that inflation may have already peaked last month following the recent decline in oil prices. This is limiting further gains in the U.S. dollar and helping to prevent a deeper decline in EUR/USD.

From a technical perspective, the pair's recent inability to establish itself above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, combined with the lack of strong bullish catalysts, continues to favor sellers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching the 50 mark, indicating a gradual recovery rather than a bullish reversal.

At the same time, the MACD is showing moderately positive momentum, although EUR/USD remains under structural pressure in the short term. This suggests that any meaningful recovery attempts may still be viewed as selling opportunities, and there is a risk that the rebound could quickly lose momentum.

The nearest resistance level is located at 1.1440. A break above this level could allow EUR/USD to retest the 100-period moving average at 1.1512. Overcoming this barrier is necessary to invalidate the current bearish trend and open the way for a more substantial upward correction. Otherwise, the pair remains vulnerable to a test of new lows.

The table below shows the percentage change in the U.S. dollar against major currencies today. The U.S. dollar posted its strongest gains against the Australian dollar.