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The price test at 1.3208 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point to sell the pound. However, the pair did not drop as expected.
Recently, the pound has struggled to strengthen against the dollar. More representatives from the Bank of England have taken a softer stance regarding future inflation growth and interest rates, and this gradual but steady shift in the rhetoric of the monetary authorities in Great Britain creates a fundamental backdrop that makes the British currency extremely vulnerable to the US dollar. Amid the recent strengthening of the dollar—driven by unexpectedly high indicators from the University of Michigan and firm statements from Federal Reserve officials—the pound is once again attempting to find support, but its defensive mechanisms are noticeably depleting. The softening rhetoric regarding future price growth stands in stark contrast to the aggressive stance across the Atlantic. While representatives of the Fed openly consider the possibility of further rate hikes to fully eradicate inflationary pressure, the Bank of England, by contrast, is starting to look towards the finish line of this process.
Today, in the first half of the day, data on the number of approved mortgage applications in the UK, the volume of net personal loans, and a speech by Bank of England MPC member Huw Pill are expected. Markets will closely watch this block of macroeconomic data, as it will provide a fresh assessment of the resilience of the British economy. The data on the volume of net personal loans will complete the picture of household conditions. This indicator reflects the overall consumer confidence level and their willingness to increase debt burdens. A decrease in borrowing volumes will heighten concerns about an impending slowdown in economic growth.
Particular attention will be paid to Pill's speech. As the head of the monetary analysis team at the BoE and an influential member of the Monetary Policy Committee, he often helps markets understand the central bank's internal logic.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today at an entry point around 1.3224 (green line on the chart), with a growth target to 1.3255 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3255, I plan to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30-35 pip move in the opposite direction from the level). You can count on the pound's growth today only within the framework of a correction. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 1.3206 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to opposite levels of 1.3224 and 1.3255 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking the level 1.3206 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3175, where I plan to exit the shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Bad news will increase pressure on the pound. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 1.3224 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease to opposite levels of 1.3206 and 1.3175 can be expected.
Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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