08.07.202613:58 Forex Analysis & Reviews: WTI: analysis and forecast. OPEC+ decision to raise output caps upside

WTI (West Texas Intermediate), US benchmark crude grade, continued its rise today, breaking above the 200-day SMA and trading above $73.37. Bullish sentiment expects a sustained breakout above this technically important 200-day simple moving average (SMA) amid renewed US–Iran tensions.

On Tuesday, US forces launched a new series of retaliatory strikes against Iran following reports of attacks on three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening an already fragile ceasefire. Moreover, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced attacks on 85 US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait in response to what it called a US violation of the ceasefire, and said it shot down a US MQ-9 drone in the country's south. These events markedly increase the risk of further escalation in the region, forcing traders to factor in geopolitical risk and supporting oil prices.

At the same time, the United States revoked an authorization that had allowed Iran to export oil to world markets. The intensifying US–Iran confrontation also fuels fears of potential supply disruptions through the vital Strait of Hormuz, which further underpins oil quotations. However, the potential for further price gains is limited by the OPEC+ decision to raise production starting in August. A further downward pressure on prices comes from Saudi Arabia's decision to cut official selling prices to Asia in August by $11 per barrel, which dampens upward momentum in oil markets.

Market attention is now focused on the upcoming release of the minutes from the June FOMC meeting (the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee). Those minutes could significantly affect demand for the US dollar and, consequently, price trends for dollar-denominated commodities. At the same time, further developments in the Middle East crisis could sustain elevated volatility in the oil market.

From a technical standpoint, oil is breaking through the convergence of the 200? and 20?day SMAs, which points to bullish sentiment. A decisive impulse above this convergence would help bulls reach higher targets. But for now, oscillators are negative, and bears retain the upper hand.