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The GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Thursday and persists in this trend into Friday. Thus, the British pound continues its essentially baseless rise, lacking local reasons. However, this is only the appearance of the situation. The pound sterling is rising completely logically for several reasons. First, the last round of its decline was completely illogical, driven by inertia and speculation. Second, the US dollar has already exhausted all its growth factors by 2026, and its long-term trend remains downward. Third, on the daily and weekly timeframes, the price has begun moving toward the upper boundary after dropping to the lower boundary of the flat channel, which is entirely logical. Therefore, we continue to expect growth for the British currency, at least within the long-term flat channel. Yesterday, there were no interesting events in either the UK or the US.
On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formed on Thursday. During the Asian trading session, the price bounced off the 1.3380-1.3386 area for the first time, and during the American session, it bounced off it a second time. In the first case, the British pound rose about 30 pips; in the second, it rose 50 pips and has nearly reached the nearest target area of 1.3456-1.3476.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form an upward trend, currently corrective but potentially becoming a full-fledged trend. The conflict in the Middle East is either not fully resolved or is currently on pause; the Federal Reserve has only declared a possible rate hike by the end of the year, which may not happen, and political crises in the UK are no longer crises. We believe the market has already factored in all the growth factors for the US currency.
On Friday, novice traders can open short positions when the price bounces from the 1.3456-1.3476 area, targeting 1.3380-1.3386. If the price consolidates above the area of 1.3456-1.3476, it will allow for new long positions with a target of 1.3587-1.3598.
On the 5-minute timeframe, trading levels to consider now include 1.3043, 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, and 1.3695. On Friday, no important events are scheduled in the UK or the US. Thus, movements today will again be technical.
Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.
Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.
Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.
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