30.07.202604:30 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview. July 30. Warsh's Best Strategy: Wait

The EUR/USD currency pair remained largely within a downward trend on Wednesday. As is our tradition, we will not examine the results of the Federal Reserve meeting or the initial market reactions in this article. It is worth reminding traders that the initial reaction often does not align with overall market sentiment or expectations for future monetary policy. Simply put, the market on Wednesday evening trades on emotions, without going into details of what Kevin Warsh said and without relating the information received to macroeconomic data and the geopolitical agenda. Therefore, we believe that it is best to wait at least 14-16 hours after the Fed meeting to see the full picture.

When discussing the future prospects for Fed tightening, we still doubt that a rate hike is predetermined; it is merely a question of timing. Reality changes at lightning speed. Today, Iran and the US are striking again; tomorrow they sit at the peace table; the day after tomorrow, they are at war again. Two important points should be recalled. First, Kevin Waller was appointed by Donald Trump to lower interest rates. Second, if the labor market is contracting, the Fed has a legitimate opportunity to forgo a rate increase even in the face of higher inflation.

At the end of last year, the Fed cut the key rate three times to stimulate the labor market. Thus, the labor market is just as significant an indicator as the consumer price index. The Fed will again have to balance between these two indicators. If the labor market is declining (with the new Nonfarm Payrolls report coming out next week), it needs to be saved. A rate hike will cause even more job loss.

Therefore, we definitely do not align with the "hawkish" wing, and we note that the market is currently realizing the scenario it wants to see, rather than what is actually happening. On his first meeting at the helm of the Fed, Kevin Waller did not hint at tightening policy by the end of the year. He merely highlighted the problem of high inflation. However, high inflation in the US has persisted for five years, as Warsh was sure to remind us. Consequently, Jerome Powell was also overflowing with determination to bring the consumer price index back to 2% but failed to do so. If Warsh is also unable to fulfill this mandate, what questions will there be for him? Moreover, both Trump and Warsh can blame Powell for all the troubles. Or blame Biden.

Trump has stated several times that he is quite satisfied with the current inflation level and that Americans will not feel an increase in prices, as the money in their wallets will continue to grow thanks to the unprecedented growth of the American economy. Trump sees no problem with inflation; Warsh was appointed by Trump; Trump demands a cut in the interest rate; the labor market is contracting. At a minimum, there are four reasons against one in favor of maintaining monetary policy rather than tightening it.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of July 30 is 51 pips and is characterized as "low." We expect the pair to move between 1.1332 and 1.1434 on Thursday. The upper channel of the linear regression is directed downward, indicating the continuation of a bearish trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area and has formed two bullish divergences, warning of a possible end to the downward trend.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.1353

S2 – 1.1292

S3 – 1.1230

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.1414

R2 – 1.1475

R3 – 1.1536

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair maintains a downward trend, presumed to be a correction within a broader upward trend, as is clearly evident on the daily or weekly timeframe. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains negative, but in 2026, first geopolitics and then the Fed's hawkish stance provided strong support for the US currency. When the price is below the moving average, short positions can be considered with targets at 1.1353 and 1.1332. Above the moving average line, long positions are relevant with targets at 1.1434 and 1.1475. The market has remained flat for the fourth consecutive week.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same way, it indicates a strong trend;
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted;
• Murray levels indicate target levels for movements and corrections;
• Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel in which the pair will spend the next day based on current volatility indicators;
• The CCI indicator — its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.