07.08.202609:48 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Compensation for Passage and Ban for US Vessels: Why the Hormuz Deal Won't Open the Strait

Oil prices rose yesterday following reports from Iranian news agencies that the Islamic Republic conducted strikes on hostile targets in the Strait of Hormuz. These movements followed a three-day increase in WTI amid increasing signs that a potential deal between Iran and Oman would not lead to a full resumption of oil supplies through the strait.

Previously, Iranian media reported that Tehran would seek a ban on the passage of American and Israeli vessels through this waterway and demand compensation from hostile countries before allowing them transit. Traders interpreted these reports clearly: exports from the Persian Gulf will remain restricted in the near future. The European gas market reacted sharply, with futures soaring by 12 percent at one point.

It is worth noting that the prospects for the agreement appeared more uncertain even before the recent events. Iran stated that the pact on the proposed shipping corridors is in the final stages. Still, the country insists that the US is not a party to the agreement with Oman, suggesting that normalizing operations in the strait will depend on lifting the US blockade of Iranian ports.

However, despite the current rebound, prices have retained much of the weekly decline following Iran and the US's indication of a possible resolution regarding shipping through this crucial energy hub. A return to normalized flows through Hormuz would unblock millions of barrels of oil supplies disrupted by the five-month conflict, and the market has priced this scenario in for most of the week.

Regarding the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $78.70. This would allow targeting $81.11, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be the $83.56 area. In the event of a decline in oil, bears will attempt to take control of $76.30. If successful, breaking this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and could push oil down to a low of $73.79 with a potential move toward $71.69.