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The test of the 1.3512 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound.
The pound rose sharply as short positions were covered ahead of important US data, and everything now depends on the results. The focus will be on the Consumer Price Index and its core measure, excluding food and energy prices. The Consumer Price Index shows how quickly prices are rising and directly affects expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate, while the core measure, which excludes volatile components, more accurately reflects persistent price pressures and is therefore closely monitored by the central bank. Under these conditions, the pound is becoming dependent on external factors. A sharp increase in inflation would strengthen the dollar on expectations of tighter Fed policy, potentially pushing GBP/USD lower, while weaker figures would weaken the US currency and support the British pound. This report will be the key factor for the pair in the near term.
Until the data are released, the pound will be guided by overall risk appetite, but volatility is expected to increase significantly after the release. The British currency has no major domestic drivers at present, so its direction will depend largely on the dollar, while the magnitude of the move will depend on how far the inflation data deviate from economists' forecasts.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point is reached around 1.3526 (the green line on the chart), with a target of a rise to 1.3561 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3561, I will exit the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the level. A continuation of the pound's upward trend today can be expected only if the US data are weak. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is only beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests 1.3510 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal higher. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3526 and 1.3561 can be expected.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3510 level is broken (the red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3468, where I will exit the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points from the level. Strong downward pressure on the pound is expected to return if the US data are strong. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is only beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell the pound if the price tests 1.3526 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal lower. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3510 and 1.3468 can be expected.
Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to remain out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire account balance very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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