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The GBP/USD pair experienced a slight pullback on Monday, but overall volatility was extremely low throughout the day. Therefore, discussing any notable price changes is not particularly meaningful. A 30-40 pip move in the British pound is typical market noise. Thus, it cannot even be said that the market reacted strongly to the disheartening news from the Middle East. The GBP/USD pair remains clearly within the upward channel, so upward movement may well continue this week. Moreover, the threats from Iran should not be taken too seriously at this point, as Tehran must understand the consequences of such actions. This week (especially on Tuesday and Wednesday), traders should focus on the British macroeconomic data. Tomorrow's inflation report will follow today's unemployment report. The inflation report will significantly influence the Bank of England's monetary policy in the coming months.
On the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were formed on Monday. As a result, novice traders had no basis for opening positions. The volatility of the pair, in any case, was low, and with such volatility, any signals would not yield profits.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair maintains its upward trend. In our view, the British pound should continue to rise, even if local factors do not support it. On the weekly timeframe, the movement from the lower boundary of the sideways channel to the upper continues. This movement is not yet complete. The market's belief in a Federal Reserve rate hike in September is diminishing, as recent U.S. macroeconomic data has been weak. Only a consolidation below the upward channel on the hourly timeframe could allow the dollar to show growth.
On Tuesday, novice traders can open short positions if there is a rebound in the 1.3587-1.3598 area, targeting 1.3456-1.3476. Long positions can be opened targeting 1.3631-1.3641 if price consolidates above the 1.3587-1.3598 area.
On the 5-minute timeframe, trading levels to consider include 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, and 1.3695. On Tuesday, the UK will publish data on the unemployment rate, the number of unemployed, and changes in wage growth rates. In the U.S., reports on the construction sector and the weekly ADP report will be released. Of all the reports, we can only highlight the unemployment report from the UK.
Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals.
Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (as listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding movement.
Beginners in Forex trading should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.
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