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On Thursday, EUR/USD continued to decline after rebounding from the 127.2% corrective level at 1.1700, moving toward the 100.0% correction level at 1.1620. A rebound from 1.1620 would favor the euro and the resumption of growth toward 1.1700. Consolidation below 1.1620 would allow traders to expect a continuation of the decline toward the next Fibonacci level of 76.4% at 1.1551.
The wave situation on the hourly chart remains bullish. The latest completed upward wave broke above the previous peak, while the new downward wave has not yet broken below the previous low. Geopolitical conditions remain consistently negative: negotiations between Iran and the United States are not taking place, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains in place. However, the FOMC's stance is currently more important for the dollar, and it remains highly contradictory.
There was virtually no significant fundamental news on Thursday, apart from some indicators that were of no real importance to traders. In Germany, the GfK Consumer Confidence Index was released in the morning and, as has become customary, showed a negative result. Consumer confidence in the future of the economy has remained negative for five years already. However, the report did not create any particular problems for the euro. Bearish traders continued their sluggish attacks, which are largely related to the retreat or pause in the bulls' attacks. For the fifth consecutive day, the euro has been declining from 1.1700 toward 1.1620 but still cannot reach the target. Market movements may be more active today, as Kevin Warsh will speak at the Jackson Hole symposium and the annual Nonfarm Payrolls data will be revised. Both events promise to be interesting, and traders are unlikely to remain indifferent to them. Therefore, I am preparing for a sharp move in either direction during the second half of the day. I believe a decline in the dollar is more likely, but I do not rule out either scenario.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the 61.8% corrective level at 1.1649 and then returned to it. Thus, the euro's rise may resume toward the next Fibonacci level of 76.4% at 1.1726 if the pair rebounds from 1.1649. The upward trend channel indicates a strong bullish advance. A strengthening of the U.S. dollar can be expected no earlier than after the price closes below the channel. No developing divergences are currently observed on any of the indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 945 Long positions and 1,876 Short positions. Over the seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage evaporated because of the war in Iran, while over the past 21 weeks the situation has become more balanced amid the apparent ceasefire and the market's hopes for an end to the war. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 196,000, while the number of Short positions stands at 255,000. The bears are once again taking the lead.
Overall, over the long term, major market participants continue to show strong interest in the euro. Certainly, events of various kinds around the world, which have been abundant in recent years, affect investor sentiment. In particular, the market is currently keeping a close eye on the situation in the Middle East, where the war alternately appears to end and then starts again. The market initially ignored the ceasefire and then ignored the resumption of the war. Thus, geopolitics no longer determines the dollar's fate on its own.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
On August 28, the economic calendar contains three entries, two of which are important. The economic backdrop will have a strong influence on market sentiment during the second half of the day on Friday.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Buying the pair today is possible following a rebound from 1.1620 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1700. Selling was possible following a rebound from 1.1700 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1620. These trades can still be kept open.
The Fibonacci level grids are drawn from 1.1620–1.1325 on the hourly chart and from 1.1849–1.1325 on the 4-hour chart.
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