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On Tuesday, EUR/USD rebounded from the 100.0% retracement level at 1.1620, reversed in favor of the US dollar, and resumed its decline toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1551. A rebound from 1.1551 would favor the euro and allow for some growth toward 1.1620. Consolidation below 1.1551 would suggest a continuation of the decline toward the next retracement level of 61.8% at 1.1507.
The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bullish. The last completed upward wave broke above the previous peak, while the new downward wave has not yet broken below the previous low. Geopolitical conditions remain consistently negative: negotiations between Iran and the United States are not taking place, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains in place. However, the FOMC's stance, which remains highly contradictory, is currently more important for the dollar.
The fundamental background on Tuesday was once again ambiguous. The bears dominated for most of the day, allowing us to draw several conclusions and assumptions. First, the market is not expecting the ECB to tighten monetary policy. Yesterday, it became known that inflation in the European Union had increased to 3.3% year-on-year, bringing the ECB noticeably closer to a second policy tightening. However, instead of a rise in the euro, we saw another decline. Second, the market is not afraid of weak US economic data. The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in below traders' expectations, while the number of job openings in July was also below forecasts. Nevertheless, the dollar continued to rise throughout the day. Thus, in my view, the market has once again shifted its attention to the Fed and geopolitics. A storm is once again brewing in the Middle East, as Tehran and Washington have resumed strikes. The oil market has already responded with another rise, which means that inflation will increase everywhere in August and September. In addition, the escalation of the conflict threatens to create new energy problems for the entire world. I would also note that traders still expect the FOMC to tighten monetary policy in September, although I have doubts about this. Nevertheless, the dollar is benefiting from the current situation.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to decline and has consolidated below the ascending trend channel. A new rebound from the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1588 would allow for a modest rise in the euro, while consolidation below 1.1588 would suggest a continuation of the decline toward the next retracement level of 38.2% at 1.1526. No developing divergences are currently observed on any of the indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
Over the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 2,678 Long positions and closed 20,058 Short positions. Over the seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage evaporated because of the war in Iran, while over the last twenty-two weeks, the situation has evened out against the backdrop of the supposed ceasefire and the market's hopes that the war would end. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 198,000, while the number of Short positions stands at 235,000. The bears remain in the lead, but their advantage is rapidly narrowing.
Overall, over the long term, large market participants continue to show strong interest in the euro. Certainly, events of various kinds around the world, of which there has been no shortage in recent years, influence investor sentiment. In particular, the market is currently keeping a close eye on the situation in the Middle East, where the war appears to end and then starts again. However, geopolitics no longer determines the dollar's fate on its own.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
On September 2, the economic events calendar contains only one release, which I do not consider important. The impact of the fundamental background on market sentiment on Wednesday will be extremely weak or nonexistent.
EUR/USD forecast and trading tips:
Buying the pair today is possible if it rebounds from 1.1551 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1620. Selling opportunities arose after a rebound from 1.1700 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1620. These trades can be kept open today.
The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1620–1.1325 on the hourly chart and from 1.1849–1.1325 on the 4-hour chart.
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