03.09.202609:35 Forex Analysis & Reviews: WTI Pulled Back to $90, but a 57% Year-to-Date Gain Remains Intact

WTI pulled back from a weekly high and is trading around $90 per barrel, while Brent fell 0.3 percent to $95.34. The reason was President Trump's statement that the renewed attacks on Iran are likely to be short-lived, and his reiteration that Washington controls the Strait of Hormuz. Answering reporters on Wednesday about how long the bombing campaign might last, Trump said, "I don't think very long."

This followed quite serious events. On Tuesday evening, U.S. forces carried out a second round of strikes in three days targeting radar systems and mining equipment along Iran's southern coast. Tehran responded with drone and missile salvos at U.S. bases in the Middle East, which fits the pattern used throughout the six-month conflict. Notably, by Wednesday evening the U.S. was no longer reporting strikes, and that pause, combined with Trump's remarks, cooled the market.

The president described the operation's results with evident confidence while leaving the door open for further escalation. "We destroyed all the new equipment they were trying to build along the Strait of Hormuz, part defensive, part offensive," he said of previous strikes, adding, "Last night there was a very powerful attack, and we are ready to do another one at any time we want."

It is worth noting that the current pullback changes little in the overall picture. The benchmark grade is still up about 7 percent for the week and 57 percent year-to-date, raising growing concern about economic consequences as winter approaches. Fuel prices are rising even faster than oil itself: U.S. retail diesel prices are near a four-year high, and the surge in energy costs was one reason for the recent sell-off in global bond markets.

Many signals point to the conflict potentially dragging on for many more months, which is crucial for assessing the resilience of the current pullback. The situation is such that prices could resume rising at any moment. The present decline rests solely on Trump's verbal intervention and one night without strikes, while the physical infrastructure of the conflict — including 50,000 U.S. troops and ongoing strikes around Kuwait — remains in place. One new round of strikes or another tanker hit in the strait would be enough to erase the entire pullback in hours, and given that European gas storage is only about 65 percent full and diesel margins are near historic highs, the energy market's buffer against a new shock is minimal.

Regarding the current technical picture for oil, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $92.50. That would allow a target of $96.54, above which a breakout would become rather difficult. The most distant target is in the $100.40 area. If oil falls, bears will try to take control of $89.54. If they succeed, a break of that range would deliver a serious blow to bulls and push Oil toward the $87.08 low, with a further prospect of reaching $84.40.