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The EUR/USD currency pair traded with minimal volatility on Monday, as expected. Two reports were published in Europe, including Germany, in the morning that could theoretically have affected the euro's mood, but the reaction was either absent or microscopic. Eurozone GDP, in the final estimate, grew 0.6% in Q2, beating weaker forecasts, while German industrial production once again contracted more than expected. Thus, these reports offset each other. The market again refuses to be distracted by secondary data, awaiting two key events this week: the European Central Bank meeting and the US inflation report. The ECB meeting is on Thursday, and the inflation report will be published on Friday. So we may assume that no interesting moves will occur before Thursday. The descending trendline on the hourly TF has been breached, so an upward trend is relevant this week. On higher TFs, the upmove also has priority.
On the 5-minute TF on Monday, no trading signals were generated. Price did not even approach key levels or areas during the day, so there was no reason for novice traders to open positions.
On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues a correction after a month-long rise. Taking into account all events of recent months, we believe the euro should continue to rise steadily even without local support. The US dollar currently has no growth drivers apart from the market's near-religious faith in a Federal Reserve rate hike — and that faith is eroding rapidly.
On Tuesday, novice traders may consider short positions targeting 1.1584–1.1594 if price bounces from the 1.1655–1.1665 area. Long positions can be held with targets of 1.1655–1.1665 after a bounce from 1.1584–1.1594 that began on Friday.
On the 5-minute TF, consider the levels 1.1366–1.1377, 1.1461–1.1474, 1.1527–1.1531, 1.1584–1.1594, 1.1655–1.1665, 1.1745–1.1754, 1.1830–1.1837. The EU economic calendar is empty on Tuesday, and the US will release the weekly ADP report today, which is even less important — effectively third-tier. Thus, we again expect low volatility today.
Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.
Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that illustrate the current trend and show the preferred direction for trading at the moment.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding movement.
Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.
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