08.09.202604:47 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Watch on September 8? Review of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Review of macroeconomic releases:

Very few macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Tuesday, and their importance is even lower than Monday's releases, which provoked no market reaction. Today Germany will publish its trade balance, and the US will release the weekly ADP jobs report. Recall that traders rarely react even to the monthly ADP report, so expecting this release to move markets today makes little sense. Thus, expect a "boring Tuesday" and likely minimal volatility.

Review of fundamental events:

There is nothing noteworthy among Tuesday's fundamental events. The market remains puzzled about the Federal Reserve's decision on the key rate in September. Last week, at least two FOMC members said there were no grounds for tightening. But US inflation will be published later this week, and grounds for action could appear. Overall, the situation remains contradictory and uncertain. We believe the key rate will not be changed. At the same time, the European Central Bank could deliver a second policy tightening this year on Thursday, so the euro is in a relatively stronger position than the dollar.

The geopolitical backdrop still leaves much to be desired. The US and Iran are not negotiating at present, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or partially closed, and Yemeni Houthis continue to blockade Saudi Arabia. Donald Trump has announced an unprecedented economic operation to destroy Iran and threatens sanctions against countries that interact with it. So far, no one has backed Trump's plan to destroy Iran, and whether it will be implemented is unknown. Over the weekend, Iran and the US again exchanged strikes, which the market largely paid no attention to.

General conclusions:

During the second trading day of the week, currency pairs may return to their usual dynamics. The euro can be traded today in the 1.1584–1.1594 area, and the pound in the 1.3587–1.3598 area. The downward correction in the euro and the pound may already be complete, and this week's macro and fundamental events could create renewed pressure on the US dollar.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range (flat), any pair can generate many false signals or may not produce any at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be acted upon only when volatility is high, and a trend line or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are positioned too close to each other (within 5-20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the right direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that illustrate the current trend and show the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.