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On Wednesday, WTI barely reacted to the Federal Reserve's policy announcements. At the time of writing, WTI trades around $98.05 per barrel, about 3.3% below the open.
The Federal Reserve voted unanimously to raise the federal-funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%. The updated dot-plot shows a median year-end rate forecast of 4.1%, implying the likelihood of one more 25-bp hike in the coming months.
After the decision, oil prices hardly moved because the market had already priced in the hike. Nevertheless, higher borrowing costs and a stronger dollar could weigh on economic activity and, therefore, on energy demand going forward.
At the same time, market participants must keep a close eye on supply risks from the Middle East, which continue to support a sizable geopolitical premium. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily constrained, and worrying security signals in the Red Sea and near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait add to uncertainty.
Some positive supply news also helped push prices lower on Wednesday. Reports indicate Saudi Aramco is working to partially restore the East-West pipeline in the coming days after the recent drone attacks. That route allows Saudi oil to be exported while bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
Technically, oil trades above key moving averages and is supported by the 9-day EMA, indicating an overall positive bias. Round resistance sits at 102.00. Oscillators are positive, confirming bulls' advantage in the market. Therefore, the path of least resistance over the longer term remains upward.
The table below shows Wednesday's percentage moves of the US dollar versus major global currencies. The dollar's largest gain was versus the British pound.
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