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On the hourly chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 1.3448–1.3454 resistance level on Wednesday and declined to the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3381. Today, many traders are expecting a recovery, which could occur if the pair consolidates above 1.3381, with targets at 1.3414 and 1.3448. Consolidation below 1.3381 would increase the chances of a further decline toward the next levels at 1.3339 and 1.3272.
The market situation has turned bearish. The latest completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the new downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the bears have now taken control of the initiative. The tightening of FOMC monetary policy and the hawkish outlook conveyed by Kevin Warsh have sharply improved sentiment among the bears. A break of the current trend is now possible only above 1.3567.
In the UK, the August inflation report was released yesterday and did not change traders' expectations for the Bank of England's interest rate. We will learn the outcome of the UK regulator's meeting in a few hours, and after yesterday's decline in the British currency, all that remains is to hope that the Bank of England's stance will also be more hawkish than previously expected. Overall, if the MPC takes a more hawkish position and votes to raise the rate by, for example, 4 votes to 5, this would be quite logical. The problem of high inflation also persists in the UK. Inflation could accelerate in the autumn and winter of 2026 in the UK as well. If the Fed has indicated its intention to continue fighting high rates of price growth, why should the Bank of England be any different? Thus, the pound could receive the market support it desperately needs today. However, I cannot say with confidence what the Bank of England's stance will be. Yesterday, few expected such a hawkish surprise from the Fed. Surprises are also possible today.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD consolidated below the 1.3467–1.3482 support level, allowing it to continue declining toward the 61.8% retracement level at 1.3348. A rebound from 1.3348 would allow for some recovery in the pound, but today's rise (or decline) could begin when the Bank of England meeting results are announced. No new emerging divergences are observed in any of the indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 11,866, while the number of Short positions decreased by 2,605. The current gap between the number of Long and Short positions is effectively 74,000 versus 132,000. The gap and the bears' advantage are gradually narrowing, but the bears still maintain a substantial advantage. Previously, the bears' dominance raised no questions, but it does now because the fundamental backdrop has changed.
I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, but in the near term, everything will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Fed and the Bank of England, as well as the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market has adjusted its expectations toward peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed without really getting started. And there is no guarantee that they will resume in the near future. The Fed's monetary policy stance remains contradictory.
US and UK Economic Calendar:
The September 17 economic calendar contains six entries, among which I highlight the Bank of England's interest rate decision and the MPC interest rate vote. The economic backdrop may influence market sentiment throughout Thursday.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Selling the pair is possible today if it consolidates below 1.3381 or rebounds from 1.3414 or 1.3448. Buying is possible if it consolidates above 1.3381, with targets at 1.3414 and 1.3448.
The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3557–1.3272 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158–1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.
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