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On the hourly chart, GBP/USD fell to the 23.6% retracement level at 1.3339 on Thursday. A rebound from this level worked in favor of the pound. The pair began rising toward the 38.2% retracement level at 1.3381. Consolidation above this level would allow for further growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 50.0% at 1.3414. A rejection from 1.3381 would favor the dollar and a return to 1.3339.
The market situation has turned bearish. The latest completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the new downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the bears have now taken control of the initiative. The FOMC's monetary policy tightening and the hawkish outlook conveyed by Kevin Warsh sharply improved bearish sentiment. A break in the current trend is now possible only above 1.3567.
In the UK, the Bank of England announced the results of its latest meeting yesterday. The results were rather uneventful, as only three MPC members voted in favor of tighter monetary policy, as traders had expected. Thus, no decision was made to raise interest rates. The Bank of England, headed by Andrew Bailey, said that inflation in the UK could accelerate to 4% by the end of the year, which would make monetary policy tightening appropriate. However, a rate hike is not required at present, and inflation remains under the regulator's control. This tone did not satisfy traders, who had expected hints about specific timing for policy tightening. The Bank of England maintained a wait-and-see stance, and it is unclear when it will be ready to raise rates. As a result, the bears continued their attacks. This morning, a report on UK retail sales volumes was released, showing an increase of 0.5% against a forecast of -0.2%. This information could have supported the bulls, but the traders' reaction was virtually nonexistent. The pound is recovering slightly in morning trading due to a corrective rebound.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD fell to the 61.8% retracement level at 1.3348. A rebound from 1.3348 would allow for some growth in the pound toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3409. Consolidation below 1.3348 would favor a resumption of the decline toward the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3277. No new emerging divergences are observed on any of the indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 11,866, while the number of Short positions decreased by 2,605. The current gap between Long and Short positions is essentially 74,000 versus 132,000. The gap and the bears' advantage are gradually narrowing, but the bears still maintain a substantial advantage. Previously, the bears' dominance was not in question, but it is now, as the fundamental backdrop has changed.
I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, but in the near term, everything will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, as well as the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market has shifted toward expectations of peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed without really getting started. Nor is it certain that they will resume in the near future. The Fed's monetary policy stance remains contradictory.
News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
The September 18 economic calendar contains two entries, both of which can be considered of little significance following the meetings of the two central banks. The impact of the economic backdrop on market sentiment on Friday may be weak.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:
Selling the pair is possible today following a rejection from 1.3381 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3339. Buying opportunities arose following a rebound from 1.3339, with targets at 1.3381 and 1.3414. These trades can remain open.
The Fibonacci level grids are drawn from 1.3557–1.3272 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158–1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.
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