21.09.202604:18 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Watch on September 21? Review of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Review of macroeconomic releases:

No macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Monday — not in Germany, the UK, the euro area, or the US. Therefore, traders will have little to react to during the day, and pair volatility is likely to be low, which many have already become used to over the past one and a half to two months. Most likely we should expect a classic "quiet Monday."

Review of fundamental events:

Among Monday's fundamental events, the only notable item is a speech by FOMC member Austan Goolsbee. However, the Federal Reserve met last week; the central bank raised the policy rate unanimously, and most FOMC members expect at least one more hike before year-end according to the dot plot. The Fed's stance is therefore clear for now. Going forward, markets will be driven more by developments in the Middle East and incoming macro data than by FOMC speeches.

The geopolitical backdrop remains poor. The US and Iran are not currently negotiating; the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or partially closed, and Iran-backed Houthi forces continue to blockade Saudi Arabia and attack its facilities. Donald Trump has proposed an unprecedented economic operation to "destroy" Iran and threatened sanctions on any countries that interact with it. So far, no one has backed Trump's plan, and it remains unclear whether it will be implemented. The conflict persists, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait remains under threat of blockade, and oil prices remain elevated.

General conclusions:

On the first trading day of the week, currency pairs will likely try to correct again. The euro can be traded today from the 1.1461–1.1474 area, and the pound from the 1.3380–1.3386 area. Volatility may be low again today since no major events are scheduled.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range (flat), any pair can generate many false signals or may not produce any at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be acted upon only when volatility is high, and a trend line or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are too close together (within 5-20 pips), treat them as a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the right direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also provide signals.

Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, traders should approach trading with utmost caution, or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.