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On Tuesday, EUR/USD consolidated below the 61.8% corrective level at 1.1473. On Wednesday morning, the decline in quotes continued toward the 76.4% corrective level at 1.1416. A rebound from this level would favor the European currency and some growth toward 1.1473. Consolidation below 1.1416 would allow for a further decline toward the next corrective level of 100.0% at 1.1325.
The wave situation on the hourly chart remains bearish. The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the latest downward wave broke the previous low and has continued to develop for three weeks. Geopolitical conditions remain consistently negative and have every chance of deteriorating in the near future. The market expects at least one more FOMC monetary policy tightening by the end of the year. These two factors have brought bearish traders back into the market, and they continue to advance.
The news background on Tuesday was extremely weak. Traders paid no attention to the ADP and consumer confidence reports in the European Union, which I cannot blame them for. At the same time, the bears continue their attacks with virtually no pauses or corrective retracements. The only reasons I can identify are a possible deterioration in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, as Donald Trump has once again made a series of aggressive statements toward Iran, as well as the FOMC's more hawkish monetary policy outlook for 2026–2027. However, for traders, it is not particularly important why exactly the dollar is rising. The price is moving rather than remaining at the same level, and technical analysis makes it possible to open trades that close with a profit. I cannot describe the current decline in the pair as entirely justified, but that does not mean it cannot be traded. Today, business activity indices for September will be released in the European Union and Germany, and they may influence the exchange rate of the European currency.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair declined to the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.1449 and consolidated below it. Thus, the decline in the European currency may continue toward the next corrective level of 0.0% at 1.1325. A close above 1.1449 would allow for some growth toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1526. A bullish divergence is developing on the CCI indicator.
During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 10,491 Long positions and closed 5,132 Short positions. During the seven weeks in February and March, the overwhelming advantage of the bulls disappeared because of the war in Iran, while over the past twenty-five weeks, the situation has become more balanced amid market expectations that the conflict will end. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 209,000, while the number of Short positions stands at 235,000. The bears remain in the lead, but their advantage is narrowing.
Overall, over the long term, large market participants continue to show strong interest in the euro. Of course, events of various kinds around the world, which have been plentiful in recent years, influence investor sentiment. In particular, the market is currently keeping a close eye on the situation in the Middle East, where the war alternately appears to end and then begins again. However, geopolitics no longer determines the dollar's direction on its own.
The economic calendar for September 23 contains six entries, and I would recommend paying attention to the European indices. The economic background may influence market sentiment on Wednesday.
Buying the pair is possible today on a rebound from 1.1416 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1473 and 1.1519. Selling opportunities arose following consolidation below 1.1473, with a target of 1.1416. These trades can remain open today. New short positions are possible on a close below 1.1416, with a target of 1.1325.
The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1325 to 1.1712 on the hourly chart and from 1.1849 to 1.1325 on the 4-hour chart.
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