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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair consolidated below the 100.0% retracement level at 1.3272 on Wednesday, allowing it to continue declining toward the 1.3164–1.3177 support level. Consolidation above 1.3272 would favor the pound and some upward movement toward the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3368.
The market situation remains bearish. The latest completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the new downward wave, which is still forming, broke the previous low. Thus, the bears are now in control. The FOMC's monetary policy tightening and the hawkish outlook conveyed by Kevin Warsh sharply strengthened the dollar's position. A reversal of the current trend is now possible only above 1.3567 or after the formation of two bullish waves.
The news background on Wednesday allowed the bears to pause, but they chose not to do so. Neither the US nor UK business activity indices suggested such a strong and further rise in the US currency. Moreover, talks between Iran and the US were held on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, during which some progress was made. Donald Trump has already stated that the conflict could end in the near future or at least after the US congressional elections. Tehran reported that it had sent the US side a proposal for a 60-day ceasefire, during which the Strait of Hormuz would gradually reopen. In turn, Tehran is seeking the lifting of sanctions, an end to the blockade of its ports, and the unfreezing of its assets abroad. It is unknown whether Donald Trump will accept the proposal, but some progress has been made. The key issue now is whether this progress will continue and whether further negotiations will also end in failure, as previous talks have. Since there has been some rapprochement between Tehran and Washington, there are even fewer grounds for the dollar to rise, as it had previously benefited from demand for it as a safe-haven asset. I believe that the dollar has already more than achieved its upside potential from the Fed's policy tightening.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair consolidated below the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3288, allowing traders to expect a continued decline toward the next Fibonacci level of 100.0% at 1.3159. A rebound from 1.3159 would allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the pound and some upward movement toward 1.3277. No new emerging divergences are observed in any of the indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category has not changed over the latest reporting week and remains bearish. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 4,189, while the number of Short positions decreased by 4,310. The current gap between Long and Short positions is approximately 69,000 versus 128,000. The gap and the bears' advantage are gradually narrowing, but the bears still maintain a substantial advantage. Previously, the bears' dominance was not in question, but this is now less certain because the news background has changed.
I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, but in the near term, everything will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Fed and the Bank of England, as well as the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market has adjusted its expectations toward peace, but negotiations between Iran and the US failed without really getting started. And there is no guarantee that they will resume in the near future.
News Calendar for the US and UK:
The September 24 economic calendar contains two events, neither of which I consider significant. The impact of the economic background on market sentiment on Thursday will be extremely weak or absent.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Selling the pair was possible after consolidation below 1.3272 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3177. These positions can be kept open. Buying opportunities may arise today if the price rebounds from the 1.3164–1.3177 level, with a target of 1.3272.
The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3272 to 1.3674 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.
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