25.09.202604:22 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Watch on September 25? A Review of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Review of Macroeconomic Releases:

Few macroeconomic releases are scheduled for Friday, and the only important one is the US durable goods orders report. However, this report is important only on paper. In recent weeks and even months, the market has ignored most macroeconomic events and even some fundamental ones. Recall that two European Central Bank policy tightenings did not affect the euro, while only the dollar has been rising over the past month. Thus, if the orders report is strong, the dollar will rise again. If the report is weak, it is far from certain the dollar will fall. The dollar's decline will begin only when the wave of mass buying in the market ends.

Review of Fundamental Events:

Among Friday's fundamental events are speeches by Fed officials John Williams and Beth Hammack, as well as a speech by ECB executive Boris Vujcic. The Federal Reserve's stance is clear: further monetary tightening in response to elevated inflation. The stances of the ECB and the Bank of England are also clear. The ECB is ready to continue tightening policy amid rising inflation. The BoE is prepared to begin tightening for the same reasons. However, this information matters little right now because the market is buying only the dollar.

The geopolitical backdrop still leaves much to be desired. The US and Iran are not conducting official talks at the moment, although Donald Trump said his team held a very good meeting with Iranian representatives at the UN General Assembly and that a deal could be signed after the US congressional elections. The market has no faith in such a rosy outcome. Recall that reduced geopolitical tension weakens the dollar. Yet the dollar has been rising for three weeks.

General Conclusions:

On the last trading day of the week, currency pairs can continue to fall calmly, since this move no longer depends on fundamentals, geopolitics, or macroeconomics. The euro can be traded today from the 1.1366–1.1377 area, and the pound sterling from the 1.3259–1.3267 and 1.3175–1.3180 areas. Volatility may be low today.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range (flat), any pair can generate many false signals or may not produce any at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be acted upon only when volatility is high, and a trend line or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are too close together (within 5-20 pips), treat them as a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the right direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also provide signals.

Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, traders should approach trading with utmost caution, or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.