28.09.202603:45 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Watch on September 28? A Review of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Review of Macroeconomic Releases:

No macroeconomic releases are scheduled for Monday. Thus the first trading day of the week is empty in terms of important events. If traders maintain a bearish stance, that will not prevent the dollar from continuing to rise today. The hourly technical picture allows for further declines in both the euro and the pound.

Review of Fundamental Events:

Monday's key events include speeches by Federal Reserve representative Thomas Barkin and Bank of England representative Dave Ramsden. However, the Fed's stance is clear now — further monetary tightening in response to elevated inflation. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are also not in question. The ECB is ready to continue tightening policy amid rising inflation. The BoE is prepared to begin tightening for the same reasons. In any case, this information is of almost no significance right now, because the market is buying only the dollar and not reacting, for example, to growing expectations of BoE tightening.

The geopolitical backdrop still leaves much to be desired. The US and Iran are not conducting official talks at the moment. However, Donald Trump said his team held a very good meeting with Iranian representatives at the UN General Assembly and that a deal could be signed after the US congressional elections. The market has no faith in such a rosy outcome. Over the weekend, Trump rejected Iran's peace proposal. After the congressional elections he could resume military actions — because (as everyone understands) the probability of a deal remains close to zero. The conflict persists, and the war could resume at any moment.

General Conclusions:

During the first trading day of the week, currency pairs can calmly continue to fall, since this movement currently does not depend on fundamentals, geopolitics, or macroeconomics. The euro can be traded today from the 1.1366–1.1377 area, and the pound sterling from the 1.3259–1.3267 area. Volatility may be low today.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range (flat), any pair can generate many false signals or may not produce any at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be acted upon only when volatility is high, and a trend line or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are too close together (within 5-20 pips), treat them as a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the right direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also provide signals.

Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, traders should approach trading with utmost caution, or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.