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The price test at 1.1353 occurred after the MACD indicator had already moved well above the zero line, limiting the pair's upside potential. For that reason, I did not buy the euro.
As the data showed, the US consumer-confidence index plunged to 81.9 in September, and the market reaction was clear: the dollar fell, and the euro got a much-needed breather. The print was notably worse than expected, and it's not just the headline number. US inflation expectations rose to 6.1%, and the share of respondents who expect a recession in the next 12 months increased. JOLTS labour-market data added to the picture: job openings remained near 7.1 million, hiring and separations barely changed, and quits held around 3.1 million. That points to a stalled labour market, and combined with collapsing consumer confidence, it increasingly looks like a slowdown rather than overheating.
This morning the euro will spend the first half of the day awaiting a significant data block from Germany and France. Berlin will publish three indicators at once: retail-sales dynamics, unemployment, and the consumer-price index. France will also release inflation figures. This is one of those days when the euro has its own domestic drivers that can set the pair's direction regardless of dollar behavior.
Inflation is the key nerve of the publication. Germany and France make up a significant portion of the eurozone CPI, and if both countries show accelerating price pressure, it will seriously complicate the position of European Central Bank members who favor moving toward easier policy. The market has recently begun rethinking the ECB's path, and fresh inflation prints can confirm or refute that shift. German retail sales and unemployment will add context on domestic demand and the labour market; strong readings across all three would create a convincing fundamental case for the euro.
For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on executing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
No 1: Buy the euro today around 1.1344 (green line on the chart), targeting 1.1364. I plan to exit at 1.1364 and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 pip counter-move. Expect euro gains only after strong data. Important: before buying, ensure the MACD is above zero and has just begun to rise.
No 2: Also buy the euro if the price tests 1.1329 twice in a row while MACD is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downside potential and trigger a reversal up. Expect moves to 1.1344 and 1.1364.
No 1: Sell the euro after it reaches 1.1329 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1309, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip counter-move). Pressure on the pair will return if the data are poor. Important: before selling, ensure the MACD is below zero and has just begun falling.
No 2: Also sell the euro if the price tests 1.1344 twice in a row while MACD is in the overbought area. This would limit upside potential and trigger a reversal down. Expect declines to 1.1329 and 1.1309.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not employ money management practices and trade large volumes.
Also, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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