01.10.202604:11 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Watch on October 1? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Trade Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Few macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Thursday. Germany and the United Kingdom will publish second estimates of manufacturing activity indexes today. In the Eurozone — a similar index and the unemployment rate, and in the United States — initial jobless claims and the ISM manufacturing activity index. We believe the ISM index will matter most. This week the market is once again buying the dollar at any opportunity, ignoring factors positive for the euro and the pound. European currencies managed to show a minimal correction, but the market's "bearish" mood continues to prevail.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

A whole series of speeches by representatives of the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve can be highlighted among Thursday's fundamental events. However, the Fed's stance is clear — further monetary tightening in response to elevated inflation. The ECB and the BoE also have clear stances. The ECB is ready to continue tightening policy amid rising inflation. The second is ready to begin tightening for the same reasons in the near future. Therefore, new speeches by officials of all three central banks are unlikely to change market expectations regarding monetary policy. The problem lies only in the market's inflated expectations of Fed policy. This week John Williams already cooled traders' "hawkish" expectations, but the dollar remains very strong relative to the euro and the pound.

The geopolitical background still leaves much to be desired. The United States and Iran are not conducting official negotiations at the moment, although Donald Trump said that at the UN General Assembly his team held a very good meeting with Iranian representatives, and a deal could be signed after the US Congressional elections. However, the market does not believe in such a rosy development. The same Trump rejected Iran's peaceful offer over the weekend, and after the Congressional elections he may resume military action, because (everyone understands this well) the probability of a deal remains close to zero. The conflict persists, and war could resume at any moment.

General Conclusions:

During the penultimate trading day of the week, currency pairs can calmly resume their decline, since it no longer depends on fundamentals, geopolitics, or macroeconomics. The euro can be traded today from the 1.1366-1.1377 area, and the pound sterling — from the 1.3259-1.3267 area. Volatility today may again be low.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range (flat), any pair can generate many false signals or may not produce any at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be acted upon only when volatility is high, and a trend line or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are too close together (within 5-20 pips), treat them as a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the right direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also provide signals.

Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, traders should approach trading with utmost caution, or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.