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The test of 1.3272 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved far below the zero line, limiting the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound.
Yesterday the pound became hostage to external reports, since the main event of the day was US data. The ADP Research report showed private-sector hiring accelerated by 90,000 jobs in September, significantly exceeding expectations and giving the dollar an initial wave of support. Against this background, GBP/USD came under pressure even before the key inflation indicator was released. US consumer spending rose 0.6% in August, the largest gain since March 2025, but the core personal consumption expenditures index added only 0.2% versus a 0.3% forecast. July's value was also revised down. This mix of strong hiring and muted core inflation pushed the odds of an October rate decision down to 36%.
Today, the pound will run on its own agenda until midday, without looking to external factors. The main reference will be the UK manufacturing PMI for September, and preliminary expectations look decent. Macro data will be complemented by speeches from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and MPC member Catherine Mann, whose comments traditionally can amplify the market's reaction to the numbers. I believe the scenario for GBP/USD here is two-sided. A strong PMI, paired with neutral or moderately hawkish rhetoric, can keep the pair at current levels, while weak data combined with cautious tones from policymakers will quickly reverse pressure on the pound.
For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenario 1 and Scenario 2.
Scenario 1: I plan to buy the pound today if the price reaches the entry point around 1.3260 (green line on the chart), targeting 1.3283 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3283, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip countermove from that level). Expect pound growth today only after good data. Important: before buying, make sure MACD is above zero and only beginning its rise from there.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3243 while MACD is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. Expect moves toward 1.3260 and 1.3283.
Scenario 1: I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3243 level is breached (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' key target will be 1.3217, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip countermove from that level). Bad news will put pressure back on the pound. Important: before selling, make sure MACD is below zero and only beginning its decline from there.
Scenario 2: I also plan to sell if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3260 while MACD is in the overbought area. This would limit the upside potential and trigger a downward reversal. Expect declines to 1.3243 and 1.3217.
Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line – approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, since further upside above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line – approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, since further downside below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders,, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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