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The test of 156.90 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving down from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point to sell the dollar. However, the pair did not fall sharply.
Today's Q3 Tankan data was mixed. The large-manufacturers' business sentiment index rose to 24 from 22 in the previous quarter but missed the 25 forecast. The non-manufacturing sector's dynamics were weaker — the reading fell to 35 from 37 versus a 36 forecast. The capital expenditures index for large companies across sectors also disappointed, at 11.3% versus expectations of 12.3% and a prior 11.5%. Forward-looking components sent mixed signals — large manufacturers' outlook rose to 21 from 17 but missed a forecast of 22, while the non-manufacturing sector's outlook matched expectations at 30 versus 28 previously. The manufacturing PMI for September printed exactly at forecast and prior value, 54.1, adding no new information for the market.
The yen reacted to this data block with a sharp weakening versus the dollar. In my view, the reason lies not in a single reading but in the aggregate — almost all Tankan components fell short of forecasts, and the market reads this as a sign that large Japanese firms remain more cautious than anticipated. The weak increase in capital expenditures is especially telling, since this component traditionally leads investment activity, and its lag reduces confidence in the speed of domestic demand recovery. For USD/JPY this backdrop became a reason to continue upward movement, especially as the manufacturing PMI matching forecasts gave no countervailing impetus.
I believe such a rapid and noticeable yen weakening brings the risk of currency intervention by Japanese authorities back onto the agenda. Recently sharp one-way moves in USD/JPY, especially near psychologically important levels, have prompted verbal warnings from Japan's Finance Ministry. I think traders should factor this risk into building long dollar positions versus the yen, because the pair approaching the 160 level would likely trigger central-bank intervention.
For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenario 1 and Scenario 2.
Scenario 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if price reaches the entry area around 158.41 (green line on the chart) with a target of 158.84 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.84, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip counter move). It is best to return to longs on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important: before buying, ensure MACD is above zero and only beginning its rise from there.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 158.10 while MACD is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. Expect moves toward 158.41 and 158.84.
Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY only after the 158.10 level is breached (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' key target will be 157.72, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip counter move). Sellers can return at any moment — only a hint from the central bank is needed. Important: before selling, ensure MACD is below zero and only beginning its decline from there.
Scenario 2: I also plan to sell if there are two consecutive tests of 158.41 while MACD is in the overbought area. This would limit the upside potential and trigger a downward reversal. Expect declines to 158.10 and 157.72.
Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line – approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, since further upside above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line – approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, since further downside below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders,, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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