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The EUR/USD currency pair corrected slightly again on Tuesday—and when I say minimally, I mean really minimal. In essence, the euro has not managed a proper correction for a month. All this time EUR/USD has been falling for any and every reason. We therefore continue to conclude the current movement is illogical. Yesterday the macro backdrop was very weak. The market ignored eurozone retail-sales data and the US ADP employment report. That is unsurprising given the past month (or months) in which the market has ignored even more important releases. The descending trendline remains relevant, so there are no grounds yet to expect a sustained rise in the euro. We continue to view the dollar's current strength as illogical, speculative, and technical — something to bear in mind.
On the 5-minute TF on Tuesday, three decent trade signals were formed. During the European session, the pair bounced from the 1.1198–1.1218 support area and rose toward the 1.1267–1.1275 resistance area. Two rejections from that resistance allowed traders to open short positions, and the pair's decline — given the trendline on the hourly-TF — may continue today back to the 1.1198–1.1218 support zone.
On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD continues a downward trend that is now a full-fledged trend. Given recent months' events, we do not believe the euro should be falling like a stone. But the market keeps buying the US dollar, ignoring events and releases.
On Wednesday, novice traders can remain in short positions after two bounces from 1.1267–1.1275 with targets at 1.1198–1.1218. Long positions may be opened on a bounce from 1.1198–1.1218 or on a confirmed close above 1.1267–1.1275.
On the 5-minute TF consider the levels 1.1132–1.1140, 1.1198–1.1218, 1.1267–1.1275, 1.1366–1.1377, 1.1461–1.1474, 1.1527–1.1531, 1.1584–1.1594, 1.1655–1.1665. On Wednesday, the eurozone calendar is light; Germany will publish industrial production, and the US will release the minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting. Remember that Fed minutes are a formality published three weeks after the meeting. Since then, important inflation and labor-market data have come out, so officials' sentiment may already have shifted.
Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.
Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also provide signals.
Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, traders should approach trading with utmost caution, or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding move.
Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.
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