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The test of 1.1250 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving up from the zero line, confirming a good entry point to buy the euro. As a result, the pair rose by more than 25 pips.
The past 24 hours were not easy for the euro. Yesterday the single currency rallied on weak US data and continued to recover after Monday's drop to a 17-month low. This morning in the Asian session demand for the dollar returned, and the euro's recovery again ran into a familiar obstacle. Buyers must repeatedly prove that any bounce will be more than a one-off move.
A fresh reason to buy dollars came from US external-trade data for August. The goods and services deficit widened sharply to $105.6bn, the largest since early 2025; imports rose 4.3% to a record, while exports rose only 1.4%. For the euro, US weakness has not yet become independent support for the single currency. The market still watches France and Spain, and the French-to-German bond spread remains at its widest since 2011.
Today's calendar offers nothing inspiring in the first half of the day. Germany will publish August industrial production and France the trade balance, and expectations are modest for both. German industrial output is expected to add roughly 0.5%, but the starting point is too low — July's decline was revised to -1.6% from an initial -1.1%. In that context, a small plus would mean only a partial rebound, not a confident turnaround.
For intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 below.
Scenario 1: Buy the euro today if the price reaches around 1.1242 (green line) with a target of 1.1261. Plan to exit at 1.1261 and sell on a reversal, expecting 30–35 pips from the entry. Expect euro strength only after strong data. Important: before buying, ensure MACD is above zero and only beginning to rise.
Scenario 2: Also buy if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1229 while MACD is in the oversold area. This would limit downside potential and trigger an upward reversal. Expect moves to 1.1242 and 1.1261.
Scenario 1: Sell the euro after it reaches 1.1229 (red line). Target 1.1206, where I plan to exit and immediately buy the reverse, expecting a 20–25 pip countermove. Pressure will return on poor data. Important: before selling, ensure MACD is below zero and only beginning to fall.
Scenario 2: Also sell if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1242 while MACD is in the overbought area. This would cap upside and trigger a downward reversal. Expect declines to 1.1229 and 1.1206.
Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line – approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, since further upside above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line – approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, since further downside below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders,, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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