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The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its downward move on Wednesday — resumed, as it were, without a single clear reason. Of course one can point to the French budget crisis, rising geopolitical tensions globally and in the Middle East, and the Federal Reserve's continuing stance toward tighter policy. But those explanations no longer convince even the most die-hard dollar optimists. The US has its own fiscal problems, yet they do not seem to affect the dollar. The Fed does intend to keep tightening, but not necessarily at the pace markets expect. The European Central Bank has been more aggressive in tightening, which the market largely ignores. Geopolitical tensions have been elevated throughout 2026. So if there were reasons for the new dollar rise, they were formal — the market is simply taking any opportunity to buy dollars and ignoring factors that would support the euro.
On the 5-minute TF on Wednesday, two sell signals formed. Overnight the price bounced off the 1.1267–1.1275 area for the third time, and during the European session it broke below the 1.1198–1.1218 zone. Novice traders could therefore have opened short positions as early as Tuesday, as we have noted. On Wednesday, those positions could be closed for profit, or traders could hold on and expect further decline toward the 1.1132–1.1140 area.
On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD continues a downtrend that is now a full-fledged trend. Given recent months' events, we do not believe the euro should be collapsing like a stone. Yet the market keeps buying the US dollar, ignoring events and releases.
On Thursday, novice traders can remain in short positions after two closes below the 1.1198–1.1218 area with targets at 1.1132–1.1140. Open long positions on a confirmed close above 1.1198–1.1218, targeting 1.1267–1.1275.
On the 5-minute TF consider these levels: 1.1132–1.1140, 1.1198–1.1218, 1.1267–1.1275, 1.1366–1.1377, 1.1461–1.1474, 1.1527–1.1531, 1.1584–1.1594, 1.1655–1.1665. On Thursday, the eurozone calendar is empty, and in the US only the secondary weekly initial-jobless-claims report is due. We do not expect it to trigger any notable market reaction. Trading during the day will again be largely technical.
Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.
Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also provide signals.
Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, traders should approach trading with utmost caution, or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding move.
Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.
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