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The test of 1.3197 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving up from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point to buy the pound. As a result, the pair rose toward the target area at 1.3219.
The market got a pause but not a solution — that is the main lesson from last night. Trump's statement that the US will not attack Iran before the midterms instantly reduced dollar demand and lifted risk assets. For GBP/USD, that provided a welcome breather after a week of pressure. But behind the headline, the reality is less rosy. The president spoke of productive talks but gave no details, and negotiations remain stalled. Iran's export blockade continues, oil rose on reports of planned strikes before the election, and there have been nine attacks on tankers in Hormuz this month. That makes any improvement in sentiment fragile.
The UK calendar is empty this morning. With no significant releases and no central-bank remarks, the pound has nothing to cling to in the first half of the day. That is not necessarily bad. The pair is carrying the upward move that began after yesterday's dollar reversal, and there is nothing to break that momentum in the coming hours. For buyers, this is straightforward: as long as the dollar remains under pressure, there is room to extend the rally. Sellers need a new reason to return, and there is no such reason in the morning. I don't expect sharp moves before US markets open; the real test for the pound will come in US trading, where it will either confirm or test its resilience.
For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenario 1 and Scenario 2.
Scenario 1: Buy the pound today if price reaches the entry area around 1.3249 (green line), targeting 1.3270 (thicker green line). Around 1.3270, plan to exit long positions and open short positions for a counter-move (expecting 30–35 pips). Expect pound strength as an extension of yesterday's correction. Important: before buying, ensure MACD is above zero and only beginning its rise.
Scenario 2: Also buy if 1.3235 is tested twice consecutively while MACD is in the oversold area. This would limit downside potential and trigger an upward reversal. Expect moves toward 1.3249 and 1.3270.
Scenario 1: Sell the pound after it breaches the 1.3235 level (red line); this should lead to a rapid decline. The sellers' key target is 1.3213, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs for a counter-move (expecting 20–25 pips). Bad news would put pressure back on the pound. Important: before selling, ensure MACD is below zero and only beginning its decline.
Scenario 2: Also sell if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3249 while MACD is in the overbought area. This would cap upside and trigger a downward reversal. Expect declines to 1.3235 and 1.3213.
Thin green line — entry price where you can buy the instrument.
Thick green line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further upside above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line — entry price where you can sell the instrument.
Thick red line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further downside below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Novice Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trade decisions based solely on the immediate market situation are, by definition, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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